基于发电功率和短期负荷预测的微网经济运行策略-研究

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1、重庆大学硕士学位论文英文摘要ABSTRACTWithpowerdemandgrowing．thetraditionalpower断dwhosecriticalfeaturesarelargecapaciD7ofgenerator，large-scalesystemandhighvoltagehasbeenthemajorpowersupplierinthepastfewyears．However，manyproblemsinthepowersystemhavebecameseriouschallengesf

2、acedbythepowerindustwintheworld．suchasincreasingload!agingequipment!increasingdemandsofpowerqualityandreliabilit3r：energyefficienc37andenvironmentproblem．Facingtheseriesofseriouschallenges．anewdevelopmentmodeinpowersystemhasbeendevelopedbydistributedgenera

3、tionasitsadvantagesofflexible，efficient：economicalandenvironmentaloperationanddiverseenergy．MicrogridisanaggregationofdistributedgenerationandloadsoperatingasasinglesystemwhichmakesmostofrenewableenergyrandimprovesthepowerqualiD'andreliability．Theeconomico

4、perationofmicrogridisoneofthekev，issuesofmicrogrid．Abettereconomicoperationstrategyandaccuratepredictionoftheoutputpoweroftheuncontrolledmicrosourcesandloadinmicrogridarethebasisofpopularizingthemicrogridtechnol093，．Inthispaper?theeconomicoperationstrategi

5、esbasedonthewindpowerforecastandmicrogridforecastinconnectionmodeandislandmodearedeveloped．Onthelevelofmicrosource．distributedgenerationisdividedintocontrolledmicrosourceanduncontrolledmicrosource．Controlledmicrosourceisabletoadjustitsoutputpowerandtheoutp

6、utpoweroftheuncontrolledmicrosourcevariesrandomlywithtimeduetothevariability．ofweather．Asatypicaluncontrolledmicrosource．theshortdynamicpredictionmodelofthewindpowerisdeveloped．Themajorfactorsaffectingwindpowerareanalyzedandaradialbasisfunctionneuralnetwor

7、kwitherrordiscriminantfunctionisproposedinthispaper．Basedontheneuralnetwork：theshortdynamicpredictionmodelofthewindpoweroutputismodeledandithasbeenfoundthatwindpowercanbesuccessfullypredictedusingthismodel．Onthelevelofloadinmicrogrid!themajorfactorsaffecti

8、ngloadinmicrogridareanalyzedandtheshortdynamicpredictionmodelusingtheneuralnetworkwitherrordiscriminantfunctionisdevelopedandithasbeenfoundthatloadinmicrogridcanbeaccuratelypredictedOnthesystemoperationlevelo