资源描述：
《数量经济学论文模型》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在工程资料-天天文库。
1、己知全国人均消费金额为Y元，人均国民收入为X元，1981〜1992年样本数据见农2.7,要求：（1）求人均消费金额对人均国民收入的一元线性样本回归方程；（2）对样本回归方程进行统计检验；（3）1993年人均国民收入为2099.5元，预测1993年人均消费金额为多少元.表2.7年份人均国民收入人均消费金额1981393.82491982419.142671983460.862891984544.113291985668.294061986737.734511987857.9751319881068.864319891169
2、.269919901250.771319911429.580319921725.9947解（1）列计算表2.7,表2.&①估计久，4,求样本回归方程.表2.8n年份X,乙X必X：11981393.824998056.2155078.46200121982419.14267111910.4175678.37128931983460.86289133188.5212391.98352141984544.11329179012.2296055.710824151985668.29406271325.7446611.516483
3、661986737.73451332716.2544245.620340171987859.97513441164.6739548.426316981988106&8643687238.41142333413449919891169.2699817270.813670294886011019901250.7713891749.115642505083691119911429.5803114788920434706448091219921725.994716344272978731896809求和1072863096745
4、94811665424平均894525.8由表2.8可得:=0.53312x6745948-10728x630912x11665424—1072*八八——B°=Y_0X=526-0.533x894=49.27表2.9n年份X,XX忑2x211981393.8249-500.2-276.75138430.425020076590.5621982419.14267-474.86-258.7512287022549266951.5631983460.86289-433.14-236.75102545.9187610.3560
5、50.5641984544.11329-349.89-196.7568840.8612242338710.5651985668.29406-225.71-119.7527028.775094514340.0661986737.73451-156.27-74.7511681.1824420.315587.56371987859.97513-34.03-12.75433.88251158.041162.5625819881068.8643174.8117.2520495.330555.0413747.56919891169.
6、2699275.2173.2547678.475735.0430015.561019901250.7713356.7187.2566792.08127234.935062.561119911429.5803535.5277.25148467.4286760.376867.561219921725.9947831.9421.25350437.9692057.6177451.6求和10728630911057022074592591538.3平均894525.75山农2.9HT得:0.533B二二1105702P'一工彳一2
7、074592八八——Bq=Y_卩X=526-0.533x894=49.27②统计检验：第一，拟合良好性检验。由表2.8和表2.9计算可决系数:0.533x2074592=U.99o5195383第二：参数估计最的t检验,由表2.8和表2.9计算怎，S”;d2n-2工沪序工彳=222.85,n-2卩'仏：0o=O,0:0°hO,2应如竺1=4.82210.219在a=0.05时，7(10)=2.23,因为r=4.822>2.23,所以在95%的置信区间下拒绝原假设，说明截距项在回归方程显著不为零.施：0产0円：0严0,(
8、壬=举“25Sa0.0103P在a=0.05时,(10)=2.23,因为r=51.25>2.23,所以在95%的置信区间下拒绝2原假设，说明X变量显著影响Y变量.第三：求00,0】的置信区间•0o在95%的置信区间为：A,_閔；<0()<0o+员，计算得:0。w(26.48,72.05)~2~2*在95%的置信区间
