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1、Broadlines&HardlinesRetail7thAnnualShareofWalletAnalysis-2018StartedwithaBang,EndedwithaWhimper;2019ImplicationsInourseventhannualShareofWalletanalysis,weexamineservicesandretailspendingshiftswhilealsodiggingintotheconsumerslowdownthatoccurredattheendoflastyear.
2、Keytakeawaysinclude:(1)2017andmostof2018wererobusttimesevidencedbyacceleratingspending,sharedynamics,categoryshifts,andanarrowinggrowthgapvs.ecommerce.However,thedeceleration/increasedvolatilitysincelastsummersuggestsalessoftnessgoesbeyondone-timefactors.One-and
3、two-yeargrowthtrendsinflectedpositivelyatthestartof2017,thepeakone-yearpaceoccurredinholiday2017,thepeaktwo-yeartrendhappenedinNov2018,andbothhavebeendeterioratingsince(coresaleshadbeengrowing~5-6%butdeceleratedto~3.5%).(2)Indeed,categorieslikeapparel,furnishing
4、s,genmerch,andelectronicsdrovetherecordChristmasin2017andledtheholidaybustin2018.WeworrythattheunderlyingmoderationandapotentialbigtaxpaymentseasonwillleadtoinvestordisappointmentdespiteeasyAprilcomparisonswhiletheMayreportingseasoncoincideswithlappinga“perfect”
5、2Q18(smellslikeapotentialtrap).Generally,alessrobustenvironmentleadstofewerstore/malltrips,whichcouldexacerbateecommerce/sharepressuresinthesesectors(plussportinggoods)andputpressureoncompanieswhosefortunesrosewiththetide.Fromastockperspective,wecontinuetofavor“
6、defensive”growthnamesandcompaniestakingshare(autoparts,COST,HD,ULTA)whileweareconcernedaboutnamesthatfallintothegreaterriskbucket(DKS,ODP,WSM).ForTGT(whichhashighexposuretothesecategoriesbuthasbeengainingshare),WMT(plus/minusshareacrossthestore),BJ(sharedonor),a
7、ndLOW(turnaroundstoryinamoderatingbackdrop),abigtestliesahead.2QwasalsoamonsterforBBY.·2018startedwithabangbutendedwithawhimper.Asdiscussedinourdeepdivelastyear,spendinginflectedinearly2017drivenbywagegrowthandthentaxreformbuttheroadaheadlookstougher(seeour“2019
8、:SmellsLikeLateCycle”).One-andtwo-yeargrowthtrendsinflectedpositivelyatthestartof2017,thepeakone-yearpaceoccurredinholiday2017,thepeaktwo-yeartrendhappenedinNov2018,a
