《决策的基础》PPT课件

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1、C4FoundationsofDecisionMakingAboutthischapter1Learningoutcomes2Chaptersummary3Linkingconceptstopractice4C4FoundationsofDecisionMakingAboutthischapter1Chaptersummary3Linkingconceptstopractice42Learningoutcomes【learningoutcomes】Describethestepsinthedecision-makingprocess（描

2、述决策过程的步骤）Identifytheassumptionsoftherationaldecision-makingmodelExplainthelimitstorationality（解释理性的限制条件）Definecertainty,risk,anduncertaintyastheyrelatetodecisionmaking（理解确定性、风险、不确定性以及与决策之间的关系。）Describetheactionsofthebounded-rationaldecisionmaker（描述有限理性决策者的行为）Identifythet

3、wotypesofdecisionproblemsandthetwotypesofdecisionsthatareusedtosolvethem（判别两种决策问题类型，识别解决这两种问题的方法。）Defineheuristicsandexplainhowtheyaffectthedecision-makingprocess(定义直觉并解释他们是如何影响决策过程)Identifyfourdecision-makingstylesDescribetheadvantagesanddisadvantagesofgroupdecisions（描述

4、团体决策的优缺点）Explainthreewaystoimprovinggroupdecisionmaking（学习三种改进群体决策的技巧）4.1Thedecision-makingProcesseightstepsindecision-makingprocess:决策过程的八个步骤识别问题确定决策标准确定决策标准权重拟订备选方案分析方案选择最佳方案实施方案评价决策效果4.2MakingDecisions:TheRationalModel问题清晰而且明确单一而定义准确的目标方案和结果是已知的偏好是清楚的偏好是一贯而稳定的不存在时间或成本

5、约束最终选择使效益最大化RationalDecisionMakingLeadtoAssumptionsofRationality4.3therealworldofmanagerialdecisionmaking:ModificationoftheRationalModel（管理决策的现实世界：理性模型的修改）4.3.1WhatisBoundedRationality?（什么是有限理性）Behaviorthatisrationalwithintheparametersofasimplifiedmodelthatcapturestheess

6、entialfeaturesofaproblem（在一个简化的模型参数内，抓住了问题的本质特征的理性行为。）Outcomeofthiskindofdecisionmakingissatisfyingdecision,butnotmaximizingdecision.（这种决策的结果是令人满意的决策，而不是最优的。）4.3.2Arecommonerrorscommittedinthedecision-makingprocess?Inordertoavoidinformationoverload,werelyonjudgmentalshor

7、tcutscalledheuristics.（为了避免信息过载，我们依靠判断快捷方式被称为直觉。）Availabilityheuristicsisthetendencytobasejudgmentsoninformationthatisreadilyavailable.（决策者倾向于以其方便获得的信息来做判断）Representativeheuristicsisthetendencyforpeopletobasejudgmentsofprobabilityonthingswithwhichtheyarefamiliar.（决策者以模拟的

8、方式来评估事件发生的可能性）escalationofcommitment:anincreasedcommit-menttoapreviousdecisiondespitenegativeinfo.（认同的强