[Goldman Sachs] Speculators, Index Investors, and Commodity Prices英文

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1、June29,2008CommoditiesSpeculators,IndexInvestors,andCommodityPricesAddressingthequestions...DavidGreelyAsWTIcrudeoilpricespushontoward$140/bbl,questionshavebeen(212)902-2850

2、david.greely@gs.comGoldman,Sachs&Co.raisedregardingtherolethatthespeculatorsandindexinvestorsarepla

3、yinginthecontinuingriseincommodityprices.InaddressingtheseJeffreyCurriequestions,westressthecommonthemethatthespeculatorsandindex+44(20)7774-6112

4、jeffrey.currie@gs.cominvestorsperformdifferenteconomicrolesinthecommodityfuturesGoldmanSachsInternationalmarkets,andthatthesedi

5、fferencesineconomicrolesimplydifferentinfluencesoncommodityprices.Theroleofspeculatorsistobringtothemarketinformedviewsonthefuturesupplyanddemandfundamentals.Consequently,speculativebuyingandsellingcanmovecommoditypricestotheextentthatothermarketparticipantsbelievethatitis

6、conveyingrelevantinformationonforwardsupplyanddemandfundamentals.Theroleofindexinvestorsistoholdthecommoditypriceriskthattheproducerswishtohedge.Becausetheybuyandsellmechanicallyandconsequentlydonotbringinformationtothemarket,indexinvestorsdonotmovecommoditypricesinthesame

7、wayasspeculators.Byloweringthecostofcapitaltocommodityproducers,however,theparticipationofindexinvestorsinthecommodityfuturesmarketscanhelplowercommoditypricesoverthelongrun.TheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.doesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult

8、,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.Forimportantdisclosures,seethetextprecedingthedisclosuresorgotowww.gs.com/research/hedg

9、e.html.Analystsemployedbynon-USaffiliatesarenotrequiredtotaketheNASD/NYSEanalystexam.TheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.GlobalInvestmentResearchJune29,2008CommoditiesTableofcontentsSpeculators,IndexInvestors,andCommodityPrices2Questionsaddressed:1.Whoarethefinancialparticipantsinthe

10、commodityfuturesmarkets?42.Whydoeseachoftheaboveparticipateinthecommodityfuturesmarkets?4