China and Global Energy Markets

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1、ChinaandGlobalEnergyMarketsbyPeterCorneliusandJonathanStoryPeterCornelius(peter.cornelius@alpinvest.com)isresponsibleforeconomicandstrategicresearchatAlpInvestandisavisitingprofessorattheVlerickLeuvenGentManagementSchool.HealsoteachesattheEuropeanSchoolforManagement

2、andTechnology.JonathanStory(jonathan.story@insead.edu)isprofessorofinternationalpoliticaleconomyandShellFellowofEconomicTransformationatINSEADandavisitingprofessorattheEuropeanSchoolforManagementandTechnology.HislatestbookisChina:TheRacetoMarket(Pearsons,2003).Ashor

3、ter,earlierversionofthisarticleappearedinFarEasternEconomicReview(October2005).Theviewsexpressedinthispaperarestrictlytheauthorsown.Abstract:Chinasemergenceasaglobaleconomicpowerhousehascausedtheworldeconomytobecomemoreoilintensiveandenergypolicytobecomeakeycomponen

4、tofChinasforeignpolicy.Responsibilityforthecountrysenergypolicyissplitamongvariouscommissionsandisfurthercomplicatedbyoverlapswithsocial,industrial,local-centralgovernmentalrelations,andgeopoliticalconsiderations.TotheextentChinasleadershipsucceedsinmeetingthesechal

5、lenges,itwillhavemajorrepercussionsfortherestoftheworld,andinparticularonChinasrelationswiththeUnitedStates.ButconflictbetweentheUnitedStatesandChinaisfarfrominevitable,aslongastheglobalpricemechanismoperatesreasonablyefficientlyandWashingtonandBeijingcanoperateinpart

6、nershipratherthanrivalry.wointerpretationsofChinasroleinthetransformationofglobalenergyTmarketscontendforprideofplaceintheongoingdebateaboutChinasrise.Oneisrelativelyupbeat.Chinaseconomy,itruns,hasenjoyedspectaculargrowthoverthepasttwodecades.Withoutputexpandingatcl

7、osetodouble-digitratesperyear,todayChinaaccountsformorethan15percentofworldGDPvaluedinpurchasingpowerparitytermsroughlycomparablewiththeshareoftheeuroarea.Asaresult,Chinahasbecomeonetheworldsmostpowerfulgrowthengines:in2005,almost30percentofglobalgrowthwasattributab

8、letoChinasrapideconomicexpansion,whereasonlyabout5percentcamefromtheeuroarea.Tokeepthisperformancegoing,theChineseleader-shiphastobringbus