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1、J.Geogr.Sci.2012,22(4):630-642DOI:10.1007/s11442-012-0952-z©2012SciencePressSpringer-VerlagSpatialeconometricanalysisofcarbonemissionsfromenergyconsumptioninChina1*1,211CHUAIXiaowei,HUANGXianjin,WANGWanjing,WENJiqun,31CHENQiang,PENGJiawen1.SchoolofGeographicandOceaographicSciences,Nanjin
2、gUniversity,Nanjing210093,China;2.LandDevelopmentandConsolidationTechnologyEngineeringCenterofJiangsuProvince,Nanjing210093,China;3.HousingandUrbanConstructionBureau,Gaochun,Nanjing211300,ChinaAbstract:BasedonenergyconsumptiondataofeachregioninChinafrom1997to2009andusingArcGIS9.3andGeoDA
3、9.5astechnicalsupport,thispapermadeapreliminarystudyonthechangingtrendofspatialpatternatregionallevelofcarbonemissionsfromenergycon-sumption,spatialautocorrelationanalysisofcarbonemissions,spatialregressionanalysisbetweencarbonemissionsandtheirinfluencingfactors.Theanalyzedresultsareshow
4、nasfollows.(1)Carbonemissionsfromenergyconsumptionincreasedmorethan148%from1997to2009butthespatialpatternofhighandlowemissionregionsdidnotchangegreatly.(2)Theglobalspatialautocorrelationofcarbonemissionsfromenergyconsumptionin-creasedfrom1997to2009,thespatialautocorrelationanalysisshowed
5、thatthereexistsa“polarization”phenomenon,thecentreof“High-High”agglomerationdidnotchangegreatlybutexpandedcurrently,thecentreof“Low-Low”agglomerationalsodidnotchangegreatlybutnarrowedcurrently.(3)Thespatialregressionanalysisshowedthatcarbonemissionsfromenergyconsumptionhasacloserelations
6、hipwithGDPandpopulation,R-squaredrateofthespatialregressionbetweencarbonemissionsandGDPishigherthanthatbetweencarbonemissionsandpopulation.Thecontributionofpopulationtocarbonemissionsin-creasedbutthecontributionofGDPdecreasedfrom1997to2009.Thecarbonemissionsspillovereffectwasaggravatedfr
7、om1997to2009duetoboththeincreaseofGDPandpopulation,soGDPandpopulationwerethetwomainfactorswhichhadstrengthenedthespatialautocorrelationofcarbonemissions.Keywords:carbonemissions;temporospatialchange;spatialautocorrelation;spatialregression;China1IntroductionAnthropogenicc
