Abrupt transitions in time series with uncertainties不确定时间序列的突变

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1、ARTICLEDOI:10.1038/s41467-017-02456-6OPENAbrupttransitionsintimeserieswithuncertaintiesBedarthaGoswami1,2,NiklasBoers1,3,AljoschaRheinwalt1,2,NorbertMarwan1,JobstHeitzig1,SebastianF.M.Breitenbach4&JürgenKurths1,5,6Identifyingabrupttransitionsisakeyquestionin

2、variousdisciplines.Existingtransitiondetectionmethods,however,donotrigorouslyaccountfortimeseriesuncertainties,oftenneglectingthemaltogetherorassumingthemtobeindependentandqualitativelysimilar.Here,weintroduceanovelapproachsuitedtohandleuncertaintiesbyrepres

3、entingthetime1234567890seriesasatime-orderedsequenceofprobabilitydensityfunctions.Weshowhowtodetectabrupttransitionsinsuchasequenceusingthecommunitystructureofnetworksrepre-sentingprobabilitiesofrecurrence.Usingourapproach,wedetecttransitionsinglobalstockind

4、icesrelatedtowell-knownperiodsofpolitico-economicvolatility.WefurtheruncovertransitionsintheElNiño-SouthernOscillationwhichcoincidewithperiodsofphaselockingwiththePacificDecadalOscillation.Finally,weprovideforthefirsttimean‘uncertainty-aware’frameworkwhichvali

5、datesthehypothesisthatice-raftingeventsintheNorthAtlanticduringtheHoloceneweresynchronouswithaweakenedAsiansummermonsoon.1PotsdamInstituteforClimateImpactResearch,TransdisciplinaryConcepts&Methods,14412Potsdam,Germany.2InstituteofEarthandEnvironmentalScience

6、,UniversityofPotsdam,Karl-LiebknechtStr.24-25,14476Potsdam,Germany.3GranthamInstitute-ClimateChangeandtheEnvironment,ImperialCollegeLondon,SouthKensingtonCampus,London,SW72AZ,UK.4SedimentandIsotopeGeology,InstituteforGeology,Mineralogy&Geophysics,Ruhr-Univer

7、sitätBochum,Universitätsstr.150,44801Bochum,Germany.5DepartmentofPhysics,Humboldt-UniversitätzuBerlin,Newtonstr.15,12489Berlin,Germany.6SaratovStateUniversity,83AstrakhanskayaStreet,Saratov410012,Russia.NiklasBoersandAljoschaRheinwaltcontributedequallytothis

8、work.CorrespondenceandrequestsformaterialsshouldbeaddressedtoB.G.(email:goswami@pik-potsdam.de)NATURECOMMUNICATIONS

9、(2018)9:48

10、DOI:10.1038/s41467-017-02456-6

11、www.nature.com/naturecommunications1