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1、Socio-Econ.Plan.Sci.,Vol.11,pp.137-146.PergamonPress1911.PrintedinGreatBritainDISTINGUISHINGAGING,PERIODANDCOHORTEFFECTSINLONGITUDINALSTUDIESOFELDERLYPOPULATIONSROBERTD.B~ANC~ARD,JAMESB.BUNKERandMARTINWACHSUrbanPlanningProgram,SchoolofArchitectureandUrbanPlanning,UniversityofCaliforni
2、a,LosAngeles,CA90024,U.S.A.(Received20October1976)Abstract-Intheanalysisoflongitudinaldatasetsdescribingthecharacteristicsofelderlypopulationsitisusefultodistinguishaging,period,andcohorteffects.Anagingeffectisachangeinvariablevalueswhichoccursamongallcohortsindependentlyoftimeperiod,
3、aseachcohortgrowsolder.Acohorteffectisachangewhichcharacterizespopulationsbornataparticularpointintime,butwhichisindependentoftheprocessofaging.Aperiodeffectisachangewhichoccursataparticulartime,affectingallagegroupsandcohortsuniformly.Inthispaperadummyvariableregressiontechniqueandap
4、arallelgraphicaltechniqueareintroducedasmeansofidentifyingaging,cohort,andperiodeffectsinalon~tud~naldataset.ThesetechniquesareappliedtodatadescribingLosAngelesCountywhichappearedinthecensusesof1940,19.50,1960and1970.Trendsinresidentia1density,homeownership,housingvalue.aoartmentGina.
5、rentalrates.one-uersonhouseholdsandracialcompositionareinvestigated,andaging,cohortandperiodeffectsarenotedBndiiterpreted.1.INTRODUCTIONmightequallywellbeexpectedthatthenextgenerationofWhenstudyingproblemsandtrendsamongtheelderly,seniorcitizenswillresideatlowerdensitiesandwillsocialsc
6、ientistsfrequentlyinferthatsituationswhichincludemanymoredriversthanthecurrentelderlywereobservedatonepointintimearetheresultofsocialpopulation.Thefutureelderlymightreflectlifestyleprocesseswhichhaveoperatedcontinuouslyovertime.choicesmadeinthe1940sand19_5Os,justastodaysForexample,the
7、observationthatseniorcitizensresidedelderlyreflectchoicesmadeinthe1920s.athigherdensitiesthanyoungerpersonsinasinglecensalInordertobetterunderstandtheprocesseswhichresultperiodoftengivesrisetotheconclusionthatelderlyintheobservedsocialanddemographicpatternsamongpersonstendtogiveupthei
8、rhome
