计量经济学导论 伍德里奇英文

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1、d7/14/994:34PMPage1ChapterOneTheNatureofEconometricsandEconomicDatahapter1discussesthescopeofeconometricsandraisesgeneralissuesthatresultCfromtheapplicationofeconometricmethods.Section1.3examinesthekindsofdatasetsthatareusedinbusiness,economics,andothersocialsciences.Secti

2、on1.4providesanintuitivediscussionofthedifficultiesassociatedwiththeinferenceofcausalityinthesocialsciences.1.1WHATISECONOMETRICS?Imaginethatyouarehiredbyyourstategovernmenttoevaluatetheeffectivenessofapubliclyfundedjobtrainingprogram.Supposethisprogramteachesworkersvariou

3、swaystousecomputersinthemanufacturingprocess.Thetwenty-weekprogramofferscoursesduringnonworkinghours.Anyhourlymanufacturingworkermayparticipate,andenrollmentinallorpartoftheprogramisvoluntary.Youaretodeterminewhat,ifany,effectthetrainingprogramhasoneachworker’ssubsequentho

4、urlywage.Nowsupposeyouworkforaninvestmentbank.Youaretostudythereturnsondif-ferentinvestmentstrategiesinvolvingshort-termU.S.treasurybillstodecidewhethertheycomplywithimpliedeconomictheories.Thetaskofansweringsuchquestionsmayseemdauntingatfirst.Atthispoint,youmayonlyhaveava

5、gueideaofthekindofdatayouwouldneedtocollect.Bytheendofthisintroductoryeconometricscourse,youshouldknowhowtouseecono-metricmethodstoformallyevaluateajobtrainingprogramortotestasimpleeco-nomictheory.Econometricsisbaseduponthedevelopmentofstatisticalmethodsforestimatingeconom

6、icrelationships,testingeconomictheories,andevaluatingandimplementinggovernmentandbusinesspolicy.Themostcommonapplicationofeconometricsistheforecastingofsuchimportantmacroeconomicvariablesasinterestrates,inflationrates,andgrossdomesticproduct.Whileforecastsofeconomicindicat

7、orsarehighlyvisibleandareoftenwidelypublished,econometricmethodscanbeusedineconomicareasthathavenothingtodowithmacroeconomicforecasting.Forexample,wewillstudytheeffectsofpoliticalcampaignexpendituresonvotingoutcomes.Wewillconsidertheeffectofschoolspendingonstudentperforman

8、ceinthefieldofeducation.Inaddition,wewilllearnhowtouseeconometricmethodsforforecastingeco