基于流溪河模型的中小河流洪水预报方法.pdf

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1、水利水电技术第48卷2017年第7期基才流溪河模型的中小河流洪水预报方法陈洋波，覃建明，王幻宇，董礼明，陈华(中山大学地理科学与规划学院，广东广州510275)摘要：针对中小河流缺乏河道断面资料而无法实际应用分布式水文模型的问题，以流溪河模型为原型，假定河道断面为矩形，采用卫星遥感影像估算河道断面尺寸，通过实测洪水资料优选模型参数，提出了中小河流洪水预报的流溪河改进模型。应用于江西省典型中小河流——太平江流域的结果表明：河道分级越多，模型模拟的洪水的洪峰流量越大、次洪径流系数越大；洪峰出现时间越提前，模拟的洪水过程的效果越好，精度越高；改进的流溪河模型对50场洪水模拟的相关系数达0．92，洪峰

2、误差均值为5．54％，最大不超过20％，平均峰现时间差为0h；洪水过程的预报结果可评定为甲等。该模型可应用于中小河流实时洪水预报中。关键词：中小河流；洪水预报；流溪河模型；卫星遥感；灾害预警；分布式水文模型doi：10．13928／j．cnki．wrahe．2017．07．003中图分类号：P338文献标识码：A文章编号：1000—0860(2017)07—0012-09LiuxiheModel．basedmethodforfloodforecastofmediumandsinail-sizedriverCHENYangbo，QINJianming，WANGHuanyu，DONGLiming，

3、CHENHua(SchoolofGeographyandPlanning，SunYat—senUniversity，Guangzhou510275，Guangdong，China)Abstract：Aimingattheproblemthatthedistributedhydrologicalmodelcannotbeappliedtomediumandsmall—sizedriverduetolackoftherelevantdataofriverchannelcross—sectionandtakingLiuxiheModelastheprototype，thecross-sections

4、izeoffiverchannelisestimatedwiththesatelliteremotesensingimageconeemedundertheassumptionofthattheCroSS·sectionisrectangular，andthenarevisedLiuxiheModelforfloodforecastofmediumandsmall-sizedfiverisproposedhereinbyoptimi—zingthemodelparametersthroughthemeasuredflooddata．Theresultfromtheapplicationofth

5、ismodeltoatypicalmediumandsmall—sizedriver---TaipingjiangRiverWatershedinJiangxiProvinceshowsthatthemorethestagesoftheriverchannelare，thelargerthepeakfloodflowsimulatedbythemodelistobeandthelargertherunoffcoefficientofindividualfloodistobe，whiletheearlierthefloodpeakOCCURS，thebetterthesimulatingeffe

6、ctofthefloodprocessistobeandthehighertheaccu-racyistobeaswell．Thecorrelationcoefficientfromthesimulationsmadebythemodelon50floodeventsreaches0．92withthemeanerrorofthepeakfloodof5．54％andthemaximumunder20％，whilethefloodpeakappearancetimeis0h．There-suhofthefloodprocessforecastcanbejudgedtobegradeA．This

7、modelcanbeappliedtothereal—timefloodforecastofmedi—amandsmall．sizedriver．Keywords：mediumandsmallsizedriver；floodforecast；LiuxiheModel；satelliteremotesensing；disasterearlywarning；dis-tributedhydrologic