德银-亚太地区-宏观策略-一带一路的世界-2019.8.21.pdf

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1、DeutscheBankResearchAsiaEconomicsDate21August2019TheAsiaEconomistTheBeltandRoadWorldMichaelSpencerTheBeltandRoadInitiative(BRI)hasexpandedfarbeyonditsoriginsintheOneBelt,ChiefEconomistOneRoadprogramofsixyearsago.Itnowencompassesmorethanhalftheworld+852-22038303economyandtouchesallcontin

2、entsexceptAntarcticaandNorthAmerica.TheBRIisfirstandforemostaneconomicventure,linkingChinatoimportantexportmarketsandtosourcesofcommodityimports.Itreflectsthegovernment'sconfi-denceinitseconomicdevelopmentmodel–buildinginfrastructurerapidlysotopreventbottlenecksdevelopingthatwouldconstr

3、aingrowth–anddeterminationtoexportthatmodeltootherdevelopingcountries.TheBRIisnotaconventionalforeignaidprogram.Borrowinggovernmentscontrolthechoiceofprojectsundertakenintheircountries,withafocusonphysicalinfra-structure,buttheChinesegovernmentpledgesitssupportwithfinancing.ManyBRIcount

4、riesareunder-suppliedwithkeytransportation,powerandtelecommuni-cationsinfrastructure,whichChinesefirmsarewell-placedtosupply.ThereislittletransparencyregardingtheamountsinvestedundertheBRIandthetermsonthefinancingsupplied.TheAsianandAfricanDevelopmentBanksesti-mateanannualinvestmentneed

5、ofaboutUSD1.9tn.TheWorldBankandotherssuggestaboutUSD600bnhasbeeninvestedinBRIprojectssinceitsinception.ThefinancingtermsonBRIprojectsaremoreoftenclosertoconventionalcommer-cialtermsthanconcessionallendingandmanyprojectshaveproveduneconomiconthoseterms.Chinahasbeenwillingtoofferdebtrelie

6、f,includingforgiveness,andthegovernmenthasencouragedlenderstobemoreattentivetodebtsustaina-bilityconsiderations.Mostlendingappearstohavebeendenominatedincurrenciesotherthantheyuan,whichimposesalimitonhowmuchfurtherChinacansupporttheInitiative.Interna-tionalizationoftheyuanwouldhelpsusta

7、intheBRIbymakingiteasierforcountriestoborrowinyuanandtoearnyuaninthefuturetorepaythosedebts.AgreaterinvolvementbyothercreditorswouldalsohelpsustaintheInitiativebyrelaxingthefinancingconstraint.Thismayalsohelpimproveprojectgovernance.Distributedon:20/08/201916:03:11GMTDeutscheBa