COVID-19下的菲律宾市场策略.docx

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1、EquityResearchAsiaPacific

2、PhilippinesPhilippinesMarketStrategyPhilippinesinthetimeofCOVID-19MultiIndustry

3、StrategyFigure1:Weexpectearningstorecovertoonly87%ofouroriginal2021estimatesResearchAnalystsPost-adjustments,ournew2021EPSestimateis13%lowerthanouroriginalestimateand6%lowerthancu

4、rrentconsensusestimates+11.4%+11.0%+17.2%+4.7%-6.8%IndexEPS(Php)580530480430380+12.6%HazelTanedo63288587757hazel.tanedo@credit-suisse.comChescaBugia-Tenorio63288587752chesca.bugia-tenorio@credit-suisse.comDanieloPicache63288587758danielo.picache@credit-suisse.comVarunAhuja,CFA2017A2

5、018A2019E2020E2021ECS-OldCS-NewConsensus-CurrentSource:Companydata,CreditSuisseestimatesApandemic-triggeredcrash.TherisingnumberofdomesticCOVID-19casesandtheLuzon-wideenhancedcommunityquarantinehassentthePCOMPonafreefall.Themarketdropped22%inMarchalone,andisnowthebiggestloserwithinASE

6、ANinlocalcurrencyterms.Thesituationonthegroundremainsextremelyfluidandthegovernmenthaswarnedofapotentialrecessionwithasmuchas6.6%of2020’snominalGDPatrisk,shouldthelockdownextendfarbeyondtheoriginaltargetedend-dateof12April2020.Factoringinthestandstill.Wefactorinthestandstillusingacons

7、ervativeassumptionthatthelockdownwouldbeextendedbyanotherfullmonth.Wecut2020/21Eearningsacrossourcoverageby16%/13%onaverage,andwenowseeindexEPSdeclining6.8%in2020E(from+11.0%)andrising+16.8%in2021E(from+12.6%).Post-adjustment,weexpectearningstoonlyrecoverto87%ofouroriginal2021estimate

8、s.Intheshortterm,liquidityandsolvencywilllikelybeofgreaterinvestorconcern.However,ouranalysisshowsthatcompaniesingeneralhaverobustbalancesheetsandarelikelytoweatherthestorm.Investingamiduncertainty.Wecutourindextargetto6,800from8,700,asweaccountforournewtargetpricesinourbottoms-upmode

9、l.Themarketisnowtradingata2021EP/Eof10.0xandonlyneedstodropanother18%tohitGFClows.Whileitisstilltooearlytocallthebottom,webelievethisisanattractiveentrypointforsomenames.OurnewindextargetandadjustedEPSimpliesa2021EP/Eof13.4x.Ourstockrecommendations.Companieswithdefensivebusinessmodels

10、areli