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《瑞信-亚太地区-投资策略-菲律宾2020年市场策略展望：对未来增长的信心-2019.12.18.pdf》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、18December2019EquityResearchAsiaPacific
2、PhilippinesPhilippinesMarketStrategy2020Outlook:ConfidenceonthegrowthaheadStrategy
3、StrategyFigure1:Philippines’P/ErelativetoAPxJP/Eateight-yearlownowResearchAnalysts1.7HazelTanedo1.663288587757hazel.tanedo@credit-suisse
4、.com1.51.4ChescaBugia-Tenorio632885877521.3chesca.bugia-tenorio@credit-suisse.com1.2DanieloPicache1.1PCOMPP/ErelativetoAPxJP/Enowateight-yearlow632885877581.0danielo.picache@credit-suisse.com0.9Nov2010Nov2011Nov2012Nov2013Nov2014Nov2015Nov2016Nov2017Nov2018No
5、v2019VarunAhuja,CFAPCOMPP/ErelativetoMSCIAsiaPacificex-JapanP/E6562123017varun.ahuja@credit-suisse.comSource:Companydata,CreditSuisseestimatesJustinCimafranca12-monthtargetsetat9,200.WesetourPSEi12-monthtargetfor2020at9,200,63288587756whichis19%abovethecurren
6、tlevelsandimpliesa2020EP/Eof17.0x.WeexpectEPSjustin.cimafranca@credit-suisse.comtoriseby12.4%nextyearandanticipateafurtherimprovementinROEsby~0.5pp.Webelievetheindexshouldreratealongsideacontinuedgrowthtrenddrivenby:(1)arecoveryinhousehold&discretionaryspendi
7、ng,(2)increasedgovernmentexpenditures,(3)improvedsystemliquidityand(4)pesotradingsidewaysafterimprovingin2019.Whyareweconfident?Thelaggedeffectsoflowinflationandinterestrateswillcontinuetosupportdemandrecovery.Realinterestratesremainfavourable,supportingastro
8、ngpeso.Weexpectthistoleadtomarginexpansionforseveralcompanies.Wearealsopositiveonthecatch-upspendingofthegovernmentandontheinfrastructurerolloutastheflagshipprojectsarerationalised.Ultimately,excesssystem-wideliquidity,combinedwithinfrastructurespending,wills
9、erveascatalystsin2020,ratherthanariskassomeperceive.Arefundamentalsenoughforare-rating?Marketliquidity,whichexhibitsacorrelationwithmarketvaluations,hasbeenonadeclineforamajorityofthelastfiveyears.Despitetherecentpickup,valuationshavedecoupledandremainrelativ
10、elylow.Wearguethatthereisroomforarecoupling.Regulatoryriskhasalsoriseninrecentweeks,withPresidentDuterteattemptingtorevokelong-standinggovernmentcontracts.Wenotethatconsiderableportionsof
