新冠疫情对亚太地区的经济影 响.docx

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1、TABLEOFCONTENTSExecutivesummary11.Fromslowdowntolockdown31.1Acoolingpaceofgrowthmovinginto202031.2Evolutionofapandemic3Figure1–COVID-19confirmedcasesbycountry3Figure2–Infectionratesacrossglobalregions41.3CurtailingthespreadtakesaheavytollinChina4Figure3–ImpactofrestrictionsonChina’secono

2、my51.4LockdownsspreadacrossAsiaandtheworld5Table1-MeasuresimposedinAPACregion62.Fromlocalizedoutbreaktoglobalrecession72.1Initialimpacts–China’sextendedshutdown7Figure4–Coalconsumptionat6Chinesepowerproducers72.2ImpactsfeltinAsia–tourismandsupplychain8Figure5–Hoteloccupancyratesbyworldre

3、gion8Figure6–SupplychainrelianceonChina92.3APACLockdown9Figure7–CompositionofSingapore’sconsumerbasket102.4Pandemicpushesworldintorecession103.Astrongreboundin2021?123.1HowshouldeconomicpolicyrespondtoCovid-19?123.2Whatwilltherecoverylooklike?144.Ordeeperdownturnanddelayedrecovery?174.1W

4、orldeconomyfacesbiggestcontractiononrecord17Figure13–WorldGDPgrowthin2020indownsidescenario174.2Greatereconomicscarringmeansaslowerrecovery18Figure14–GDPgrowthindeeperdownturnanddelayedrecovery185.Conclusions19EXECUTIVESUMMARYCOVID-19presentsanunprecedentedthreattobothhumanhealthandtopro

5、sperityincountriesintheAsiaPacificregionandglobally.Theinitialandprimaryconcernisofcoursetheimpactthediseasehasonthosethatsufferandthosearoundthem.Buttheoutbreakisalsohavinganeconomicimpactonascaleandspeednotseenbefore.Andwhereaspreviousriskstoeconomicgrowth,suchasatradewarorafinancialcr

6、isisbroughtaboutbyhighdebt,areincreasinglywell-understood,theoutbreakofCOVID-19haspresentedeconomicpolicymakersaroundtheworldwithverydifferentchallenges.TheimpactofCOVID-19hasevolvedfromanAsia-focussedsupplychainshocktoatrulyglobalstoppageinnormalbusinessactivity.Economicforecastspublish

7、edinJanuaryandFebruary,whentheoutbreakwaslargelycontainedtoAsia,showedahittoworldGDPgrowthofaround0.2%.China’slockdownmeasuresthroughFebruaryandMarchtookanincreasinglyheavytollontheeconomythough,deepeningtheeconomiccostofcontainingthevirus.Andasthevirushasspreadacrosstheg