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1、Chapter2AHistoryofCausalAnalysisintheSocialSciencesSondraN.Barringer,ScottR.Eliason,andErinLeaheyAbstractInthischapterweprovideanoverviewofthehistoryofcausalanalysisinthesocialsciences.Wereviewliteraturepublishedfromthemid-1800stothepresentday,tracingthekeystrain
2、softhoughtthatleadtoourcurrentunderstandingsofcausalanalysisinthesocialsciences.Givenspacelimitations,wefocusonthreeofthemostimportantstrandsofcausalanalysisÐthosebasedon(1)constantconjunctionandregularityaccounts,(2)correlationalandpathanalytictechniques,and(3)p
3、otentialoutcomesandcounterfactualframeworks.WethenreturntothecomplexityofaWeberianapproach,whichcontainsnearlyalloftheelementsofthesethreemajorframeworksintoasinglecase-orientedmethodtocausalanalysis.Weconcludebyspeculatingonthefutureofcausalanalysisinthesocialsc
4、iences.IntroductionAscantthreedecadesaftertheUnitedStatesCivilWar,AlbionSmall,drawinglargelyontheworkofWilhelmWundt(1883)andwritingintheßedglingAmericanJournalofSociology,toldhisreadersthatÒRadicalerrorandpersistentconfusionwouldbeforestalled,ifstudentscouldbefam
5、iliarfromthestartwiththefactthatsociologyisnot,Þrstandforemost,asetofschemestoreformtheworldÓ(Small1898:113).Instead,thisnewdisciplinewastobefocusedoncollectingandassessingempiricalinformationaboutsociety,andakeenattentiontoresearchmethodswasrequiredtogainlegitim
6、acyandsuccess.SmallwentontoelaboratethreestagesintheÒessentialmethodologicalprocessÓ(1898:118)forthisyoungscience.TheÞrstwasdescriptiveanalysisofthebasiccomponentsoftheobjectofstudy.WhiledescriptiveanalysiswasseenbySmallasanecessaryÞrststepinsociologicalunderstan
7、ding,thesecondwasbyitsnaturemoreinterestingandimportantanddifÞculttoachieve.Thesecondstagewascausalanalysis.CausalanalysistoSmallmeantmanythingsÐunderstandingcausalrelations,articulatingcauseandeffect,andexplanationofsomecomplexwholefromexaminationoftheparts.Atit
8、sheart,causalanalysistoSmallwasthebreakingapartofprocessesintoconstituentcomponents,examiningwhichcomponentsproducewhichoutcomesinisolation,andthenputtingitall
