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1、8cost-benefitanalysisoldandnewBenefit-costpracticeandpolicyanalysesweregreatlyimprovedwhennon-market,ornon-pecuniary,valueswereincluded—achangeofrelativelyrecentvintage,andstillnotuniversal.Theevidencenowsuggestsfurtherimprovementscouldbemadebytakingaccountofmorerealisticbehavioral
2、assumptionsinvaluinggainsandlosses.—JackKnetsch,“Gains,Losses,andtheUS-EPAEconomicAnalysesGuidelines:AHazardousProduct,”Environmental&ResourceEconomics32(2005),110TheWelfareFoundationsofCost-BenefitAnalysisTheeconomictheorybehindstandardcost-benefitanalysis(CBA)beginswiththebasicas
3、sumptionsabouthumanpreferencesdiscussedinPartOneofthisbook.Economicvaluearisessolelyfromhumanpreferencesandtheseprefer-encesarestableovertime(StiglerandBecker1977).Itisthetaskofecono-metricianstouncoverthesehiddenbutstablepreferencesthroughsurveys(suchasthecontingentvaluationmethod
4、)orbyimputingpricesforgoodsnotdirectlytradedinmarkets(hedonicpricing).TheobjectistoidentifypotentialParetoimprovementssothatpublicpoliciescanbedesignedtocor-recttheseinefficiencies(marketfailures).Whetherornotmarketchoices,orpseudo-marketchoices,identifiedbyCBAaccuratelyreflectwhat
5、is“best”forsocietydependscriticallyonthevalidityoftheassumptionsoftherationalactormodel.ThischapterwasoriginallypublishedinasomewhatdifferentforminJohnM.Gowdy,“TowardanExperimentalFoundationforBenefit-CostAnalysis,”EcologicalEconomics63(2007),649–655.ReprintedwithpermissionfromElse
6、vierPublishers,Amsterdam.144modernwelfareeconomicsMyteacherNicholasGeorgescu-RoegencomparedthisprocesstoMichelangelo’sviewthathisstatuteswerealreadyinsidethemarbleblockshebeganwith—itwashisjobmerelytouncoverthem.Likewise,inthemindsofmanyeconometricians,ifthereissomedisparitybetween
7、observedbehaviorandtheHomoeconomicusideal(forexample,unstablepreferences,other-regardingbehavior,timeinconsistency)itmustbebecauseweareusingthewrongtoolstouncoverthe“real”preferencesweknowareoutthere.CBAestimateschangesineconomicwelfareusingtheMarshalliancon-ceptofconsumersurplusas
8、discussedintheappendixtoCh
