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1、P1:OTA/XYZP2:ABCc09JWBT347/MckinseyJune10,201014:17PrinterName:Hamilton9ForecastingPerformanceInPartOne,FoundationsofValue,wefocusedonhowtoforecastlong-runvaluedriversthatareconsistentwitheconomictheoryandhistoricalevidence.Inthischapter,wefocusonthemechanicsofforecastingspec
2、ifically,howtodevelopanintegratedsetoffinancialforecaststhatreflectthecompanysexpectedperformance.Althoughthefutureisunknowable,carefulanalysiscanyieldinsightsintohowacompanymaydevelop.Thischaptershowshowtobuildawell-structuredspreadsheetmodel:onethatseparatesrawinputsfromcomput
3、a-tions,flowsfromoneworksheettothenext,andisflexibleenoughtohandlemultiplescenarios.Nextwediscusstheprocessofforecasting.Toarriveatfu-turecashflow,weforecasttheincomestatement,balancesheet,andstatementofretainedearnings.Theforecastedfinancialstatementsprovidetheinforma-tionnecess
4、arytocomputenetoperatingprofitlessadjustedtaxes(NOPLAT),investedcapital,returnoninvestedcapital(ROIC),andultimatelyfreecashflow(FCF).Whileyouarebuildingaforecast,itiseasytobecomeengrossedinthedetailsofindividuallineitems.Butwestress,onceagain,thatyoumustplaceyouraggregateresult
5、sinthepropercontext.YoucandomuchmoretoimproveyourvaluationthroughacarefulanalysisofwhetheryourforecastoffutureROICisconsistentwiththecompanysabilitytocompetethanbyprecisely(butperhapsinaccurately)forecastingaccountsreceivable10yearsout.Forthisreason,westartbydiscussingtheprop
6、erlengthanddetailofaforecast.DETERMINELENGTHANDDETAILOFTHEFORECASTBeforeyoubeginforecastingindividuallineitems,youmustdeterminehowmanyyearstoforecastandhowdetailedyourforecastshouldbe.Thetypical187P1:OTA/XYZP2:ABCc09JWBT347/MckinseyJune10,201014:17PrinterName:Hamilton188FOREC
7、ASTINGPERFORMANCEsolution,describedinChapter6,istodevelopanexplicitforecastforanumberofyearsandthentovaluetheremainingyearsbyusingaperpetuityformula,suchasthekeyvaluedriverformulaintroducedinChapter2.Whateverperpe-tuityformulayouchoose,allthecontinuing-valueapproachesassumest
8、eady-stateperformance.Thus,theexplicitforecastperiodmustbelongenough
