frameworks for valuation forecasting performance

frameworks for valuation forecasting performance

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时间:2018-02-10

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1、P1:OTA/XYZP2:ABCc09JWBT347/MckinseyJune10,201014:17PrinterName:Hamilton9ForecastingPerformanceInPartOne,FoundationsofValue,wefocusedonhowtoforecastlong-runvaluedriversthatareconsistentwitheconomictheoryandhistoricalevidence.Inthischapter,wefocusonthemechanicsofforecastingspec

2、ifically,howtodevelopanintegratedsetoffinancialforecaststhatreflectthecompanysexpectedperformance.Althoughthefutureisunknowable,carefulanalysiscanyieldinsightsintohowacompanymaydevelop.Thischaptershowshowtobuildawell-structuredspreadsheetmodel:onethatseparatesrawinputsfromcomput

3、a-tions,flowsfromoneworksheettothenext,andisflexibleenoughtohandlemultiplescenarios.Nextwediscusstheprocessofforecasting.Toarriveatfu-turecashflow,weforecasttheincomestatement,balancesheet,andstatementofretainedearnings.Theforecastedfinancialstatementsprovidetheinforma-tionnecess

4、arytocomputenetoperatingprofitlessadjustedtaxes(NOPLAT),investedcapital,returnoninvestedcapital(ROIC),andultimatelyfreecashflow(FCF).Whileyouarebuildingaforecast,itiseasytobecomeengrossedinthedetailsofindividuallineitems.Butwestress,onceagain,thatyoumustplaceyouraggregateresult

5、sinthepropercontext.YoucandomuchmoretoimproveyourvaluationthroughacarefulanalysisofwhetheryourforecastoffutureROICisconsistentwiththecompanysabilitytocompetethanbyprecisely(butperhapsinaccurately)forecastingaccountsreceivable10yearsout.Forthisreason,westartbydiscussingtheprop

6、erlengthanddetailofaforecast.DETERMINELENGTHANDDETAILOFTHEFORECASTBeforeyoubeginforecastingindividuallineitems,youmustdeterminehowmanyyearstoforecastandhowdetailedyourforecastshouldbe.Thetypical187P1:OTA/XYZP2:ABCc09JWBT347/MckinseyJune10,201014:17PrinterName:Hamilton188FOREC

7、ASTINGPERFORMANCEsolution,describedinChapter6,istodevelopanexplicitforecastforanumberofyearsandthentovaluetheremainingyearsbyusingaperpetuityformula,suchasthekeyvaluedriverformulaintroducedinChapter2.Whateverperpe-tuityformulayouchoose,allthecontinuing-valueapproachesassumest

8、eady-stateperformance.Thus,theexplicitforecastperiodmustbelongenough

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