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1、ProspectTheoryandDecision10underRiskorUncertaintyOnOctober12,2007,Americaninvestorscelebratedanewhigh-watermarkastheDowJonesIndustrialAveragehitanall-timehighof14,093.Stockswerebooming,andmanypeoplewerebuying.Homevalueshadalsoincreasedsubstantiallyoverthepreviousdecade,producingsubsta
2、ntialwealthforthosewhohadinvestedinhomeownership.Manyhadtakenoutlargeloanstobuyuprealestateasaninvestment,countingoncontinuingincreasesinhomepricestoproducevalue.Withalargecohortofbabyboomerspreparingforretirement,manyhadbuiltsubstantialwealththroughstockandrealestateinvestmentsandfel
3、twellpreparedfinanciallyforalongandcomfortableretirement.That’swhenthingsstartedtogosour.HousingpriceshadbeguntodeclineslightlybetweenAugustandOctober,butbyNovemberthedeclineinhomevalueshadbecometoomuchforinvestorstoignore.Stockpricesstartedaslowdeclinealso.Althoughmostprognosticatorsc
4、learlypredictedthatfurtherlossesinrealestateandstockswereahead,optimisticinvestorsbegantoreasonamongthemselves,“Ican’tgetoutnow,Iwilllosemoney.”Sentimentssuchas“Idon’twanttosellataloss.IwillwaituntilthepricegoesbackuptowhereIpurchased,andthengetout,”werecommon.InJanuary2008,realestate
5、pricesstartedasteepdecline.Manyhomeswerenowvaluedatlessthantheoutstandingdebtonthemortgage.Thosewhohadcountedonthemoneytheycouldmakeuponsellingtheirpropertytocoverthemortgagewouldnowbeforcedtodefault.Banksthathadmadetheseloanswereintrouble.Afterashortperiodofstability,thehousingmarket
6、wentintoasteepdecline,losingalmost30percentbetweenAugust2008andFebruary2009.Thestockmarkettooknotice.ByOctober2008,stockpricesbegantocrash,losingasmuchas18percentinasingleday.Investorswerefinallyreadytosellevenataloss.ByMarch2009,theDowJonesIndustrialAveragewasonly6,627.Stockshadshedne
7、arly53percentoftheirvalue.Massiveamountsofwealthhadbeendestroyed,andbabyboomerswerelefttocometogripswiththefactthattheymighthavetoputoffretirementforseveralyearsandperhapscutbackontheirplannedexpenses.Oftentheplantobuylowandsellhighdoesn’tquiteworkoutthatway.Whyareinvestorssowillingto
8、holdo
