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1、EquityResearch16November2017U.S.LifeScienceTools&DiagnosticsINDUSTRYUPDATE3Q17ProstateCancerPrognosticDxU.S.LifeScienceTools&DiagnosticsMarketModel:VolumesBuildAheadNEUTRALUnchangedofMedicareCoverageExpansionU.S.LifeScienceTools&DiagnosticsJackMeehan,CFAIn3Q17,webelievevolumetrendsforprognostictes
2、tingcontinuedtoshowsolid+12125263909volumegrowthaheadofcoverageexpansionsforfavorableintermediateriskjack.meehan@barclays.comMedicarepatients.Weestimateindustryvolumesinthequarterwereup29%y/ytoBCI,US8Ktests,thoughupjust1%q/qinwhatisseasonallyasofterSummerquarteracrosshealthcare.Onanannualizedbasis
3、,weestimatetheindustryisnowroughly14%MitchellPetersenpenetratedofthe230Kprostatecancerpatientsdiagnosedannually(andweestimate+12125263367mitchell.petersen@barclays.com16%oflow-riskpatients),upfrom7%overatwoyearperiod.MyriadandGenomicBCI,USHealthhavebothreceivedCMSpositivedecisionsforfavorableinter
4、mediateriskpatients,andcontributionsfromthesedecisionswillbeginduringCY4Q17.Myriad’sAndrewWaldcoveragebecameeffectiveSeptember25th,whileGenomicHealth’sbecameeffective+12125269436October9th.andrew.wald@barclays.comBCI,USOnthecompetitivelandscape,webelieveGenomicHealth(Underweight)hasgainedshareeach
5、ofthepasttwoquarters,thoughMyriad(EqualWeight)continuestoholdaleadintermsofvolumesleadingintoMedicarecoverageexpansion.Inthequarter,weestimateMyriad’sordersgrew23%y/yandflatq/qto5.4K.Weestimatethisrepresents~4.6Kvolumes,embeddinga15%discounttoordersinourmarketmodeltoaccountforbiopsysamplerejection
6、.Thevolumetrendscompareto39%growthy/yand3%growthq/qatGenomicHealthto~3.5Ktests.Again,withourconversionfactor,webelievethevolumenumbersprovideanapples-to-applescomparisonamongstthetwocompanies.Onthepayorfront,Myriadhasapproximately30millioncoveredprivatelives,comparedto16millionprivatecoveredlivesa
7、tGenomicHealth.RevenuesfavoredGenomicHealthinthequarter,withOncotypeDxrevenuestotalling$5.5millioninthequarter,versus$2.9millionforProlaris.Webelievetherecentdivergenceinrevenuecanbeattributedtogreatercashcollect
