巴黎银行-巴西-宏观经济-巴西：选举追 踪

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1、BRAZIL:ELECTIONTRACKERJANUARY2018EMERGINGMARKETSRESEARCH,LATAMMARCELOCARVALHO@MCarvalhoEconLULA(PT)–LULALOSESAPPEAL24-January.April–August.15-August.September-OctoberAppealsCourtTRF4AppealingRegistrationdeadlineInvalidatingcandidateOn24January2018,the

2、AppealsFollowingTRF4’sdecision,Mr.LulaElectorallawallowsLulatostartAnotherimportantdeadlineisCourtupheldthecorruptioncanappealtothe:campaigningeventhoughheis17September–thisisthedateconvictionagainstformerPresidentineligible.Despitebeingfoundforanypar

3、tytosubstitute•SuperiorCourt(STJ)LuizInácioLuladaSilva.Lulawasguilty,Lulacanseektoregistercandidates.Ifthefinaldecisionearlierfoundguiltyofmoney•SupremeCourt(STF)himselfasacandidateupuntilonLula’scandidacytakeslaunderingandpassivecorruption15August.Ea

4、chcandidatelongerthanthat,thereisariskchargesinaninvestigationrelatingFormerPresidentLula’sdefencereceivesatemporarypermittofortheWorker’sParty(PT)totheOperationcarwashscandal.couldaskbothcourtstoreviewhisstarttheofficialcampaignwhileendingwithoutacan

5、didate.conviction.TheunanimousdecisionApanelofthreejudgesreviewedthethoughwouldsuggestthatthetoptheElectoralCourtassessesThefirstroundoftheelectiondecisionanddecidedtocourtsareunlikelytosuspendtheeligibility.isscheduledtotakeplaceonunanimouslyupholdit

6、.OneTRF4’sruling.7October,withsecondroundimportantconsequenceisthat,(run-off)scheduledfor21whileLulacanappealthedecisionOctober.inthehighercourts,heisnowconsideredineligibleforOctober’sOverviewpresidentialelection.•TheprospectsforMr.Lula’scandidacynow

7、lookdim,givenSentencedto12yand1minjailandapaymentofBRL1.01mnrecentdevelopmentsattheAppealsCourt.•TheTRF’s3x0unanimousrulingmakesapossiblereversalofBrazil:Lulalosesappealthedecisioninthehighercourtsunlikely,inourview.Source:Politicalanalysts,BNPParibas

8、January26,2018

9、2Thisisaninteractivemenu.CONTENTSClinkontheboxesbelowtonavigatethroughthefile01020304POLLSGENERALINFOBIOSHISTORICALSERIESPRESIDENT:1STROUNDCALENDARPARTIESPSDBREDEPRESIDENT:PRESIDENT:2NDROUNDTVANDRADIOTIMEPSLPTPDTAPPROVALRATESSEN