巴黎银行-新兴市场-宏观策略-土耳其策略要点-20171103-bnp_paribas-turkey_desknote

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1、EMSTRATEGY

2、TURKEYDESKNOTETurkeyDesknote03November2017Thisdocumenthasbeenproducedby:InOctober,Turkey’sCPIroseby2.1%m/m,abovethemarketTurkEkonomiBankA.S.consensusinaReuterspollof1.9%andclosetoourcallof2.0%.H.ErkinIşık,CFAWehaverevisedupourend-yearCPIinflationforecastto11.2%y/y,CEEMEAFX&IRStrategy

3、from9.8%previously.Ourend-2018forecastisunchangedat8.8%.+902166352987Onourestimates,thetrendinflationindicatorsintheCBRT’sinflationnoteonMondaywillriseforcoreCinflationbutfallslightlyforservicesinflation.WethinkthechancesoftheCBRTtighteningliquidityandleadingtheaveragerepofundingratehigherto12.

4、25%haveincreased.Wehaverevisedupourend-yearinflationforecastConsumerpricesroseby2.1%m/minOctober,abovethemarketconsensusinaReuterspollof1.9%andclosetoourcallof2.0%.Theendingoftaxcutsonwhitegoodsandcurrencydepreciationwerethemainreasonsforthehighinflationprint,whilefoodinflationwaslargelyunchanged

5、.Asaresultofthemonthlyincreasetheheadlineinflationrateincreasedfrom11.2%y/yinSeptemberto11.9%.WeexpecttheimpactoftheTRY’sdepreciationtoputfurtherupwardpressureontheheadlineinflationrateaheadsuchthatitpeaksslightlyabove12%inNovember.WethenexpectheadlineinflationtofallfromDecemberonwardsduetobaseef

6、fects.Inaddition,thegovernmentplanstoskipitsregulartobaccotaxhikeinJanuarywhichwillsupportafallininflationintheshortterm.Soheadlineinflationislikelytodeclineslightlybelow9.5%inQ12018.However,inlightoftherecentdepreciationoftheTRYwehaverevisedupourend-2017inflationforecastto11.2%,from9.8%previousl

7、y.Ourend-2018forecastat8.8%isunchangedfornow.Chart1:Consumerprices(%y/y)Chart2:BNPParibasinflationdiffusion*Source:Turkstat,BNPParibas*Diffusionindexiscalculatedastheratioofthenumberofitemswithincreasingpricestototalnumber.Source:Turkstat,BNPParibasHighercorepricesmayrequireatighterliquiditystanc

8、eCorepricesalsorosesignificantlyinOctober,withcoreCinflationincreasingfrom11.0%y/yinSeptemberto11.8%,itshighestlevelsinceJanuary2004.Althoughservicesinflationremainedat9.6%y/y,withrentinflationunchangedat9.1%,thisishig