德银-中国-股票策略-中国股市2018年展望：继续看好优质股，garp投资主题

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1、MarketsResearch2018outlookChinaEquityStrategy2018outlook:Staybullishforqualitygrowth,G.A.R.P.investmentthemesChiefChinaEquityStrategist,MichaelTong(+852)22036167

2、michael.tong@db.comJanuary2018MichaelTong,CFA

3、(+852)22036167

4、michael.tong@db.comOutlineJanuary4,20181.201

5、7performancerecap2.Macro/liquidityoutlook3.Marketview,sectorpreferenceandstockpicks4.GreeningEnvironment5.ReformingSOEs6.Advancingmanufacturing7.PremiumizingconsumptionDeutscheBankdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Thus,investorsshouldbe

6、awarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.DISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)083/04/2017.Distributedon:22/01/2018

7、16:32:26GMTTHECONTENTMAYNOTBEDISTRIBUTEDINTHEPEOPLE’SREPUBLICOFCHINA(“THEPRC”)(EXCEPTINCOMPLIANCEWITHTHEAPPLICABLELAWSANDREGULATIONSOFPRC),EXCLUDINGSPECIALADMINISTRATIVEREGIONSOFHONGKONGANDMACAU7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaStaybullishforqualitygrowth,G.A.R.P.investmentthemesWeex

8、pectMSCIChina/HSCEItoreach110/14,000byend-18,inviewofadecentearningsoutlook(MSCIChinaEPS+17.0%/15.5%in2018/19E)onsecularandcyclicaldriversexpansioninmultiples(narrowingthegapwithDM)onareducedriskdiscount,andfavorableliquidityconditionsAlthoughGDPgrowthislikelytom

9、oderate,theeconomyshoulddemonstrateresilienceanddeliverbetterqualitygrowth.WerecommendinvestorstofocusontheG.A.R.Pinvestmentthemesfor2018,i.e.Greening(environment),Advancing(manufacturing),Reforming(SOE),andPremiumizing(consumption).WerecommendOWSoftware/Internet,C

10、onsumerDiscretion,Insurance,Healthcare,andWater/Renewables,aswellasBanks/Brokers,andUWMaterials,RealEstate,CapitalGoodsandtraditionaldefensives(Telecom/Staples).Wehighlight20toppicksand2stockscreens.DeutscheBankMichaelTong,CFA

11、(+852)22036167

12、michael.tong@db.comMarke

13、tsResearch1January,201822/01/201815:47:28Recapofindexperformancein2017Globalequitiesperformancein2017MSCIChinasectorperformancein20