德银-中国-酒店、休闲与博彩业-中国酒店业：开启长期性增长

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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChinaChinaHotels30November2017ConsumerHotels/Leisure/IndustryUpdateGamingTallanZhouKarenTangSeculargrowthkickinginResearchAnalystResearchAnalyst(+852)22036464(+852)22036141tallan.zhou@db.comkaren.tang@db.comAseculargrowthsectorToppicks

2、WeanalyzethesupplyanddemandofChina’slimitedservicehotels(economyChinaLodging(HTHT.OQ),USD114.48Buyhotels)andconcludethatthesectorwillseeseculargrowth(RevPARgrowthofJinjiangInternationalHotelsBuy6%CAGR)inthenextfiveyears.Webelievethelike-for-likehotelaveragedaily(2006.HK),HKD2.7

3、5rate(ADR)forbotheconomyandmidscalehotelswillcontinuetogrowtomeetJinjiangHotelsDevelopmentBuyconsumers’trade-updemand.Meanwhile,onablendedbasis,webelievethe(600754.SS),CNY31.00shortsupplyofmidscalehotelswillcontinuetoincreaseitspercentageoftheBTGHotels(600258.SS),CNY27.81Buytot

4、al,leadingtoafavorablemixchange(40%ofnewhoteladditionswillbeSource:DeutscheBankmid-tohigh-scalehotels).CompaniesFeaturedHotelsarealeveragedbusiness,RevPARisthekeyChangesinoperatingcostperroom(excludingrent)aremanageableforChinaLodging(HTHT.OQ),USD114.48Buyeconomyandmidscalehote

5、ls;hencetomaximizeprofit,thekeyistoincrease2016A2017E2018ERevPAR.Thetwolargestcostsinoperatingeconomyhotelsare:1)staffcostP/E(x)21.038.727.1(alreadymanageableatastaff-to-roomratioof0.18-0.2),and2)rentcost,EV/EBITDA(x)8.716.711.8whichisnormallyfixedfor15-20years.Webelievethetwok

6、eydriverstoPrice/book(x)4.57.86.0increasingRevPARinthenextfiveyearsare:1)ahigherpercentageofJinjiangInternationalHoteBuyupgradedeconomyhotelsand2)ahigherpercentageofmidscalehotels.(2006.HK),HKD2.752016A2017E2018EEconomysegmenthaslikelybottomedP/E(x)37.326.123.1Webelieve2016wast

7、hetroughforeconomyhotels’RevPARasthehighhotelEV/EBITDA(x)13.210.09.7supplygrowthislikelytoslowsignificantlyinthenextfiveyears(6-7%CAGRPrice/book(x)1.01.31.3vs.38%CAGRover2006-16).Webelievethesharpdeclineineconomyhoteladditions,from5kin2015to2kin2016,isaturnaroundpointforthesect

8、orasJinjiangHotelsDevelopmentBuy1)loss-makingfranchise