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1、3December2017
2、4:05PMESTEMStrategyViewsABullish2018EMOutlook...anyQuestions?nAsolidoutlook,butwhatis“goodenough”formarkets?WeexpectCaesarMaasry+1(212)902-8763
3、above-trendgrowthin2018,butthestartingpointisalreadyahealthyone.Givencaesar.maasry@gs.comGoldmanSachs&Co.LLCmarketstradegrowthaccelera
4、tionandrevisions,notethatconsensusforecastsarelesspositive(andbelowournumbers)on2018growththancominginto2017.Historically,EMassetswithstanduptoa25bpnegativerevisiontoconsensusGDPwithoutpostingnegativereturns(alowriskinourview).nWhatdoesa“synchronous”growthcyclemeanforassets?EMandDMhada‘synch
5、ronizedslowdown’in2011-12butdivergedfrom2013-2015.ThehomogenousimprovementingrowthrateshasnotledtohighreturncorrelationacrossEMassets(thoughperhapsithassuppressedvolatility).WeseeplentyofroomforEMreturndispersionnextyear,particularlyinFXandlocalrates.nIs2018“moreofthesame”forEMAssets?Thedyna
6、micsofcontinuedstronggrowthsuggestEPSandspreadcompressionwillcontinuetobethedriverofequityandcreditreturns,respectively.However,higherUSrateswilllikelypressuretotalreturnsincreditandlocalratesmoresothanin2017.Nevertheless,thelevelsofyieldsinEMlocalbonds(~6.2%)andaconstructiveEMFXoutlook(~2%a
7、ppreciation)shouldhelpcushiondurationriskinaggregate.nEquity-Whereisthebestgrowthstory?WearetacticallybullishonAsiangrowth,bothintrade(KR,TW)anddomestic(CH,IN)butfor2018wewouldfocusonwhereprofitmarginshaveroomtorecover(BR,MX,ID,RUB).nCredit-Stickwithhighyield?Weexpecthigh-spreadcreditstoconti
8、nuetooutperformin2018.Thisstrategyunderperformswhenspreadswidenbymorethan20bppermonth,butweseelowriskofpersistentspreadwidening.nLocalRates-AnyinsulationfromUSraterisks?BRL,INR,COP,PEN,andRUBlocalratestradewithlowbetatoUSrates;CLPismoresensitivebuthasasteepcurve.InflationissupportiveintheseEM
9、sbutwillbelesssoforBRLandINR.nFX-Whentorotateinto“Value”?Wepreferglobalgrowthexposureincommodity-EMs(CLP,PEN,BRL)andAsiaGrowthFX(KRW,IDR,INR).But“Value”(MXN,ZAR,TRY)hasstartedtorecover.WeprefertotradetheseFXvs.theirlocalcreditsinrelativevaluespace.
