德银-美股-宏观经济-美联储观察员：早期迹象表明通胀预期正在向上蔓延

《德银-美股-宏观经济-美联储观察员：早期迹象表明通胀预期正在向上蔓延》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、FedWatcher:EarlysignsinflationMatthewLuzzettiSeniorEconomistexpectationsarestirringupwards(+1)2122506161

2、matthew.luzzetti@db.comBrettRyanSeniorEconomist(+1)2122506294

3、brett.ryan@db.comJustinWeidnerEconomist(+1)2124691679

4、justin-s.weidner@db.comAvikChattopadhya

5、yAssociateavik.chattopadhyay@db.comJanuary22,2018DISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)083/04/2017Distributedon:23/01/201813:49:00GMTDistributedon:22/01/201814:23:25GMTDeutscheBankResearchMatthewLuzzetti

6、(+1)2122506161

7、matthew.luzzetti

8、@db.comJanuary22,20187T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaDBFedWatcher:EarlysignsinflationexpectationsarestirringupwardsSummary:LittlenewfromFedspeak.SomesignsMarketinflationexpectationsatornearShort-runconsumerinflationexpectationsinflationexpectationsmovingoffoflows.severalyearh

9、ighshaverisenonhigheroil;long-runstilllowDBView:Unchanged:4hikesin’18;3in’19%10yearbreakeveninflationexpectations%Inflationexpectationsinthenext5-10yearsFedspeak5Y5Ybreakeveninflationexpectations3.4Inflationexpectationsinthenextyear3.0Who**TakeawaysImpact*3.2W

10、illiamsWouldbe“greathonour”toserveas2.5[3]ViceChairifnominated3.0Dudley[3]Taxcutscouldcauseoverheating2.02.8Easyfinancialconditionsdespite2.6hikes1.5Signsinflationwilldriftuptotarget2.4QuarlesLeverageratioproposal“relatively[3]soon”1.02.2Easestresstes

11、t,livingwillsburdens2014201520162017201820142015201620172018Source:BloombergFinanceLP,DeutscheBankResearchSource:UMICH,HaverAnalytics,DeutscheBankResearchMester[4]Supports(1)comparing,butnotbinding,policytorules,and(2)FedGDPtrackersforQ4–2017Eventstowatchthi

12、sweeklinkingforecasts(i.e.whichdotgoeswithwhicheconomicforecast)%q/q,AtlFed:3.4%WhenWhoSetting/topicEvans[2]GrowthissolidbutinflationaworryARNYFed:3.9%SenateConfirmationhearingforFedDBforecast:3.3%nomineeGoodfriendSupportsnohikesthroughmid-’185Jan-23Evans

13、IntroductoryremarksataKaplan[3]2018growthof2.5-2.75%Inflationpressuresbuildingbut4conferenceonUnconventionalheadwindsfromtechnologyMonetaryPolicyRisksofoverheating3BullardSpea