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1、OilPriceDeckUpgradeDeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChina17January2018HongKongOilPriceDeckEnergyUpgradeIndustryUpdateOil&GasUSD60/bblisthenewUSD40/bbl;upgradingDBoildeckJohnsonWanUpgradingoildecktoUSD62/bblin2018andlong-termoilpricetoUSD65/bblResearchAnalys
2、tOurDB'sglobalcommoditiesteamhasupgradedouroildeck,raisingBrentpricestoUSD62/62/63/65perbarrelfor2018/19/20/21+(previouslyUSD54.5/56/58/60+852-22036163perbarrelfor2018-2021+).Ourupgradeisduetoabettersupply-demandoutlook,VitusLeungwherenowweexpectaslightdeficitin2018/1
3、9.WealsoexpectbackwardationResearchAnalystintheoilcurvetobepersistent,sustainingapositiverollinenergyasaconstant+852-22036158contributortoreturns.Ourcommoditiesteamcautionsthatpricesmayhavemovedtoofartooquickly,butspotlossesshouldbemodestandmoppedupKeyChangesbytherol
4、lreturn.WealsobelievethatBrentdippingbackbelowUSD60/bblisCompanyTargetPriceRatinglesslikely,implyingthatoilhasnowreboundedfromthe"lowerforlongerera"0857.HK5.77to6.28-totheneweraoftheUSD60's.Nevertheless,ourteamhighlightsthatUSD62/0386.HK7.44to7.86-bblisbelowthespotBr
5、entpriceofUSD70/bbl,asweseeincreasingrisksfrom0883.HK13.82to15.84-stronger-than-expectedUStightoilgrowth.2883.HK9.13to12.11-Source:DeutscheBankFY18earningsupby10%-57%andpricetargetsupbyanaverageof10%ToppicksAftertheoilpriceadjustment,weraiseearningsforCNOOC/SNP/PTRby
6、ChinaOilfieldServicesBuy40%/10%/57%forFY18andalsoraiseearningsforCOSLby20%inFY18,aswe(2883.HK),HKD9.68seepotentialforhighercapexspendbythemajors.Aftertheadjustment,PTRPetroChina(0857.HK),HKD5.90Holdremainsthemostsensitivetotheoilprice,withaUSD1/bblchangeimpactingSinop
7、ec(0386.HK),HKD6.52BuyFY18earningsby5.3%,versus4.0%and1.5%forCNOOCandSNP,respectively.CNOOCLtd(0883.HK),HKD12.54BuySource:DeutscheBankIntermsoftargetprice,CNOOCwillseethebiggestupliftat+14.6%,givenitspureupstreamexposure,followedbyPTRandSNPat+8.8%and+5.6%,respectivel
8、y.Amongthemajors,westillpreferCNOOCthemostgivenitsattractiveyieldat5%+,lowcost,strongRRRcapabilitiesandleveragetooilprice.Intermsof
