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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaStrategyDateHongKongChinaStrategy5February2018SpotlightStrategyUpdateMichaelTong,CFALukaZhuValuation,performance,liquidityafterResearchAnalystResearchAnalyst(+852)22036167(+852)22036173astrongrallymichael.tong@db.comluka.zhu@db.comPe
2、rformanceandvaluations:MXCIgained12.5%whileCSI300/HSCEI+5.6%/+15.8%MSCIChinagained12.5%inJanuary2018,outperformingCSI300(+5.6%)whileunderperformingHSCEI(+15.8%).ForMSCIChina,banks,realestate,diversifiedfinancialsandenergyled,whilehealthcareandutilitieslagged.ForCS
3、I300,realestatetoppedsectorperformance,followedbyenergy,diversifiedfinancialsandbanks,whiletelecomlost8.1%andutilities/healthcare/insurance/ITlagged.TheMSCIChina(ex.ADRs)12mforwardP/Estands+6%premiumwiththehistoricalaverageat11.5xwhileP/Bisat1.6x,ora4%discounttoth
4、ehistoricalaverage.Non-financials’12mfwdP/EandP/Bareat15.9xand2.1x,respectively.A-shareCSI300gained5.6%inRMBtermsinthepastfourweeks,withrealestate,energy,banksanddiversifiedfinancialssignificantlyoutperformingothers.Theindextradesat14.0xand1.9x12mforwardearningsan
5、dbookvalue,respectively.ChiNext’svaluationhasdeclinedto22.8x12mfwdP/E,nearly1-STDbelowthehistoricalaverage.Macro&earnings:macrodatabetter;energy/materials-ledearningsupgradeThermalcoalconsumptionsurgedto20%yoyinJanuary,vs.lastmonth’s10%.Intermsofcommodityprices,ce
6、mentandcoalpricesroseandindustrialcommoditiesfuturesremainedflattish,whilerebardroppedinJanuary.MSCIChina2018EconsensusEPSexpandedby3pptinthepastfourweeks,withenergy,materials,insuranceanddiversifiedfinancialsleadingtheearningsupgrades.CSI3002018EPSrevisionrose1%d
7、uringthepastfourweeks,withconsumerstaples’,telecoms’andtransportation’searningsrevisedupthemost.Liquidityandsentiment:onshoreratesdippingwhilecreditspreadsexpandingHKequities’ADTaveragedHKD130bninJan,higherthanthepreviousmonthandstillstrongercomparedtothe2017avera
8、ge(HKD88bn).Connectinflowscontinuedbothwaysandvolatilitiesrebounded.DailysouthboundinflowsincreasedtoRmb3.5billion,doublethe2017averageofRmb1.7billion.O
