汇丰银行-全球黄金展望-贵金属20171221-24页

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1、21December2017GoldOutlookCOMMODITIESPRECIOUSMETALSGoldilockedwithfewbearsGlobalWeseegoldlockedinanarrowrangein2018,supportedbyJamesSteelfinancialmarketrisksandEMdemand;raterisesfactoredinChiefPreciousMetalsAnalystHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc.james.steel@us.hsbc.comCentralbank,

2、ETFandbardemandshouldrisemodestly;coin+12125253117salesmayrisefromlowlevels;mineandscrapsupplylimitedPrice-sensitiveEMbuyerstosetfloorforrange;ouraverage2018forecastisUSD1,284/ozandUSD1,314/ozfor2019GoldpriceoutlookandforecastsWeanticipateonlymoderatelyhighergoldpricesin2018an

3、d2019,basedmostlyonexpectationsofgreatersafehavenbuyingandrecoveringjewelrydemand.Tightermonetarypoliciesgloballymaycreateheadwindstoralliesbutarelargelypricedin.AstableUSDshouldnotweighonprices,butmaylimittheupside.Anyincreaseinfinancialmarketvolatilityorrisksmayaidgold.Asares

4、ult,goldislikelytoremainlockedinatradingrangeofUSD1,161/oztoUSD1,355/ozin2018.Wehighlightthefollowingdrivers:TighterG3ratespricedin;lesscertainguidance/otherrisksmayaidgoldTighteningbytheFedandothermajorcentralbankslendsapotentiallynegativebackdropforgoldbutimpactislargelyprice

5、d.However,asratesrise,forwardguidancemaybecomemoreuncertain(see2018–FX&theFed:Forwardguidancecouldloseitspower,11December),whichcouldaidgolddemandlongterm.Anysustainedequitymarketweaknesswouldencouragesafehavendemand,aswouldgeopoliticalrisksandhigherglobaltradetensions.Investme

6、ntmixed,physicaldemandweakWelookforbothETFandComexdemandtobuildin2018.Jewelrypurchasesandbardemandmayincrease,butcoinsalesareweak.Mineoutputmaybeplateauingandscrapsupplylookslimited;centralbankdemandshouldincrease.Thebalanceofthesefactors,whichweupdateinourdetaileddemandandsupp

7、lytable,leadustolowerouraveragepriceforecastsslightlyfor2018and2019,andweadda2020forecast.Nevertheless,westilllookformodestupsideingoldnextyearandin2019.1.HSBCaveragegoldpriceforecasts______2018f_____________2019f_____________2020f___________Longterm____(USD/oz)OldNewOldNewOldN

8、ewOldNewGold1,3101,2841,3301,314--1,3401,350unchangedL