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1、30October2017AsiaPacific/HongKongEquityResearchUtilitiesChinaPowerSectorResearchAnalystsSECTORREVIEWDaveDai,CFA85221017358dave.dai@credit-suisse.comCatalystsnearforthelaggardsGaryZhou,CFAFigure1:ROE/PBtrendforwindfarmoperators/IPPs85221016648gary.zhou@credit-suisse.com(P/B)(ROE)1.8
2、20%GloriaYan1.515%852210173691.20.910%gloria.yan@credit-suisse.com0.65%0.30.00%Jan-12Jan-13Jan-14Jan-15Jan-16Jan-17Jan-18ROE-windROE-IPPsPB-windPB-IPPsSource:TheBLOOMBERGPROFESSIONAL™service,CreditSuisseestimates■Timetoconsidertwolaggards.WebelievethattheYTDunderperformanceofthecoa
3、l-firedindependentpowerproducers(IPPs)andwindfarmoperatorshasbeendirectlycausedbyrisingcoalpricesanddelayedsubsidypayments,respectively.However,IPPlossesareunsustainableastheyhaveledtoexecutionrisksonanumberofreforms/policies.Meanwhile,subsidyimpactoncashflowsrequiresurgentremedies
4、toensuresustainableinvestments.Weviewpolicyimprovementsforbothsectorsaskeycatalysts.■Inflectionisclose.Webelievethata5%on-gridtariffhikeinJanuary2018(on12-monthrepricingcycle)couldturnaroundtheIPPlosses,akeyhindrancetocarryoutseveralreforms(GreenCertificates,powerreform,andcarbontr
5、ade)—allofwhichrequiretheirfinancialstrength.Marketexpectationsdonotlooktoohighassomestocksonlypriceina~2%tariffhike.Wereduceourearningsforecastsbasedonahighercoalpriceoutlook,accordingtotheCShouseview,butthesectorROEshouldstillrecoverfrom3%inFY17Eto8%inFY18E.■Aseriesofeventsforwin
6、d.Forwindfarmoperators,aremedyonlegacysubsidypayments(delayed>2years)couldboostlistcos'cashflows.Onepossiblewayistoraiserenewablessurchargefrom1.9fen/KWhto3.0fen/KWh,whichissufficienttoclosethedeficits.ThesubsidymodelforfutureprojectsmaystillcomeintheformofGreenCertificates,butmark
7、etsizeandpricerulesareneededtoensuresustainableinvestments.Lastly,despitewindresourcesbeingbelowexpectationsYTD,curtailmentsshouldimprovefurtherintheNorthwestinFY18E,supportedbynewultra-high-voltage(UHV)powernetworks.ThisshouldhelpsectorROEimprovefurtherfrom10%inFY17Eto12%inFY18E.■
8、PreferwindfarmoperatorstoI
