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1、Chapter17:MacroeconomicandIndustryAnalysisChapterOpenerp.548TODETERMINEAproperpriceforafirm'sstock,thesecurityanalystmustforecastthedividendandearningsthatcanbeexpectedfromthefirm.ThisistheheartoffundamentalanalysisResearchtopredictstockvaluethatfocusesonsuchdeterminantsasearningsanddividendspr
2、ospects,expectationsforfutureinterestrates,andriskevaluationofthefirm.—thatis,theanalysisofthedeterminantsofvaluesuchasearningsprospects.Ultimately,thebusinesssuccessofthefirmdeterminesthedividendsitcanpaytoshareholdersandthepriceitwillcommandinthestockmarket.Becausetheprospectsofthefirmaretied
3、tothoseofthebroadereconomy,however,fundamentalanalysismustconsiderthebusinessenvironmentinwhichthefirmoperates.Forsomefirms,macroeconomicandindustrycircumstancesmighthaveagreaterinfluenceonprofitsthanthefirm'srelativeperformancewithinitsindustry.Inotherwords,investorsneedtokeepthebigeconomicpic
4、tureinmind. Therefore,inanalyzingafirm'sprospectsitoftenmakessensetostartwiththebroadeconomicenvironment,examiningthestateoftheaggregateeconomyandeventheinternationaleconomy.Fromthere,oneconsiderstheimplicationsoftheoutsideenvironmentontheindustryinwhichthefirmoperates.Finally,thefirm'spositi
5、onwithintheindustryisexamined. Thischaptertreatsthebroad-basedaspectsoffundamentalanalysis—macroeconomicandindustryanalysis.Thetwochaptersfollowingcoverfirm-specificanalysis.Webeginwithadiscussionofinternationalfactorsrelevanttofirmperformance,andmoveontoanoverviewofthesignificanceofthekeyvar
6、iablesusuallyusedtosummarizethestateofthemacroeconomy.Wethendiscussgovernmentmacroeconomicpolicy.Weconcludetheanalysisofthemacroenvironmentwithadiscussionofbusinesscycles.Finally,wemovetoindustryanalysis,treatingissuesconcerningthesensitivityofthefirmtothebusinesscycle,thetypicallifecycleofanin
7、dustry,andstrategicissuesthataffectindustryperformance.17.1TheGlobalEconomyp.549Atop-downanalysisofafirm'sprospectsmuststartwiththeglobaleconomy.Theinternationaleconomymightaffectafirm'sexportprospects,thepricecompetitionitfacesfr
