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1、ResearchonSpilloverEffectofForeignDirectInvestment1.IntroductionInrecentdecades,economistshavebeguntoidentifytechnicalprogress,ormoregenerally,knowledgecreation,asthemajordeterminantofeconomicgrowth.Untilthe1970s,theanalysisofeconomicgrowthwastypicallybasedonneoclassicalmodelsthatexplaingrowthwit
2、htheaccumulationoflabor,capital,andotherproductionfactorswithdiminishingreturnstoscale.Inthesemodels,theeconomyconvergestosteadystateequilibriumwherethelevelofpercapitaincomeisdeterminedbysavingsandinvestment,depreciation,andpopulationgrowth,butwherethereisnopermanentincomegrowth.Anyobservedincom
3、egrowthpercapitaoccursbecausetheeconomyisstillconvergingtowardsitssteadystate,orbecauseitisintransitionfromonesteadystatetoanother.Thepoliciesneededtoachievegrowthanddevelopmentintheframeworkofthesemodelsisthereforestraightforward:increasesinsavingsandinvestmentsandreductionsinthepopulationgrowth
4、rate,shifttheeconomytoahighersteadystateincomelevel.Fromtheviewofdevelopingcountries,however,thesepoliciesaredifficulttoimplement.Lowincomeanddevelopmentlevelsarenotonlyconsequences,butalsocausesoflowsavingsandhighpopulationgrowthrates.Theimportanceoftechnicalprogresswasalsorecognizedintheneoclas
5、sicalgrowthmodels,butthedeterminantsoftheleveloftechnologywerenotdiscussedindetail;instead,technologywasseenasanexogenousfactor.Yet,itwasclearthatconvergenceinincomepercapitalevelscouldnotoccurunlesstechnologiesconvergedaswell.Fromthe1980sandonwards,growthresearchhasthereforeincreasinglyfocusedon
6、understandingandontogenetictechnicalprogress.Moderngrowththeoryislargelybuiltonmodelswithconstantorincreasingreturnstoreproduciblefactorsasaresultoftheaccumulationofknowledge.Knowledgeis,tosomeextent,apublicgood,andR&D,education,training,andotherinvestmentsinknowledgecreationmaygenerateexternalit
7、iesthatpreventdiminishingreturnstoscaleforlaborandphysicalcapital.Takingthisintoaccount,theeconomymayexperiencepositivelong-rungrowthinsteadoftheneoclassicalsteadystatewherepercapitaincomesremainunchanged.Dependingonth
