盈余质量与盈余的定价模式的影响

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1、原文：EarningsQualityandthePricingEffectsofEarningsPatternsEarningsPatternsandEarningsQualityPreviousresearchonpricingeffectsofearningspatternshasconsideredincreasingearnings,earningsthatmeetorexceedanalystforecasts,andsmoothearnings.Theresearchismotivatedbyth

2、eobservationthatmanagersappeartofocusonmaintainingsuchpatterns.Webuildonthisobservationbyexploringthenotionthatmanagers’accrualschoiceseitherreinforceorundercutthepricingeffectsofearningspatterns.Inthissection,wedescribepreviousresearch(section2.1),discussw

3、hythethreeearningspatternsweconsidermightbeeconomicallydistinct,asopposedtomanifestationsofasingleunderlyingconstruct(section2.2),anddiscussthelinksbetweenearningspatternsandearningsquality(section2.3).1、PreviousresearchonpricingeffectsofearningspatternsBeg

4、inningwiththeobservationthatmanymanagersappeartostrivetoreportsteadilyincreasingearnings,Barth,ElliottandFinn[1999]documentrewardstosuchbehavior:firmswithincreasingearningshavehigherprice-earningsmultiplesthanotherfirms,aftercontrollingforgrowthandrisk.Thec

5、ontrolforgrowthisbasedonbothincreasesinbookvalueofequityandanalystearningsgrowthforecasts,andthecontrolforriskisthevarianceofthemostrecentsixyears’percentageearningschanges.Theyattempttoruleoutthepossibilitythatfirmswithlongpatternsofincreasingearningsalsos

6、hareavaluationrelevantfactorthatisknownbeforetheearningspatterndevelops;resultsaremixedalthoughtheauthorsconcludethattheweightoftheevidencedoesnotsupporttheexistenceofsuchafactor.Barthetal.donotconsiderwhetherthequalityofearningsmightaffecttheirresults,alth

7、oughtheynotethatifearningsincreasesareobtainedviaearningsmanagementwhichinvestorsdiscernanddiscount,theirtestswillbebiasedagainstfindingpricingeffectsassociatedwithpatternsofincreasingearnings(seetheirnote6).KasznikandMcNichols[2002]andBartov,GivolyandHayn[

8、2002]focusonmarketeffectsofmeetingorexceedinganalystforecasts.KasznikandMcNicholsdocumentthatconsistentlymeetingorexceedinganalystforecastsisassociatedwithahighermultiplerelatingearningstoprice,andthis