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1、OP-EDCONTRIBUTORWillChinaStumble?Don’tBetonItBySTEVENRATTNERPublished:December2,2011HARDLYadaygoesbywithoutnewsofyetanothereconomicproblemfacingChina.Afrothyrealestatemarket.Quicklyrisingwages.Aweakeningmanufacturingsector.Tighteninglendingstandards.Thelistcanseemendles
2、sandfrightening.ButafterarecentvisittoChina,Iremainstaunchlyoptimisticthatitwillcontinuetobetheworld’sgreatestmachineforeconomicexpansion.Whiledevelopedcountriesbumpalongwithlittlegrowth,China’sgrossdomesticproductisexpectedtoincreaseby9.2percentin2011andanequallyastoni
3、shing8.5percentnextyear.Thecountrypulseswithenergyandsuccess,acaldronofeconomicambitionlardedwithunderstandableself-confidence.VisittheGeneralMotorsplantontheoutskirtsofShanghaiandwatchBuickschurnedoutbysteadilymovingassemblylinesalmostindistinguishablefromthoseinplants
4、inMichigan.Thatshouldn’tsurprise,asG.M.strivesforuniformityacrossitsChinesefacilities.PerhapsmorestartlingisthatG.M.achievesAmericanlevelsofproductivity,qualityandworkersafety—withpaythatisasmallfractionoflevelsintheUnitedStates.ThisillustratesChina’sgreatstrength:itsab
5、ilitytorelentlesslygrinddowncostsbycombininghighlaborefficiencywithwagesthatremainextraordinarilylow.AtFoxconn’slargestplant,inShenzhen,420,000Chineseearningabout$188permonthassembleelectroniccomponentsformegacustomerslikeApple,Hewlett-PackardandDell.Oftencriticizedforj
6、ustbeinganationof“assemblers,”Chinahasbeenincreasingthevalueitaddstoexportsasmorecomponentsareproducedthere.G.M.,forexample,uses350localsuppliers.China’seconomicsuccessiscoloredbyitsopaquepoliticalsystem,repressiveandriddledwithcorruption.Buttheunusualmixofauthoritarian
7、ismandfreeenterpriseshouldcontinuetoworkbecauseofitsabilitytodeliverrisingincomes,satisfyingapopulacethatappearsmoreinterestedineconomicadvancementthanindemocracy.Chinahasaplethoraoftasksonitseconomictodolist,butnoneareimpossiblydaunting.JustasintheUnitedStatesacenturya
8、go,jobsareneededforvastnumbersofruralmigrantsmovingintocities.Inefficientstate-ownedcompaniesmustberestructure
