影响gdp增长的经济因素分析

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1、影响GDP增长的经济因素分析近年来，我国GDP逐年增长，经济发展速度令人瞩目。为更好的了解我国经济增长的原因，我组对影响我国GDP增长的经济因素进行了分析。下表（表1.1）提供了我国1978——2002年的GDP及其主要影响因素的数据。其中Y=GDP(亿元)；X1＝能源消费总量（万吨标准煤）；X2＝就业人员（万人）；X3=居民消费水平（元）；X4＝农业总产值（亿元）；X5＝社会消费品零售总额（亿元）；X6＝进出口贸易总额（亿元）ObsX1X2X3X4X5X6Y1978571444015218413971558

2、.63553624.1197958588410241971697.61800454.64038.2198060275423612361922.621405704517.8198159447437252492180.622350735.34862.4198262067452952662483.262570771.35294.71983660404643628927502849.4860.15934.5198470904481973273214.133376.412017171198576682498734373

3、619.4943052066.78964.4198680850512824474013.0149502850.410202.2198786632527835084675.758203084.211962.5198892997543346355865.277440382214928.3198996934553297626534.738101.44155.916909.2199098703567408037662.098300.15560.118547.91991103783583608968157.039415

4、.67229.321617.819921091705943210709084.710993.79119.626638.1199311599360220133110995.512462.11127134634.4199412273761470174615750.516264.720381.946759.4199513117662388223620340.92062023499.958478.1199613894868850264122353.724774.124133.867884.61997138173696

5、00283423788.427298.926967.274462.6199813221470637297224541.929152.526849.778345.2199913011971394313824519.131134.729896.282067.5200013029772085339732917.9334152.639273.289468.1200113491473025360937213.4937595.242183.697314.8200214822273740379143499.9140910.

6、551378.2104790.6一：现估计模型为Y=A0+A1*X1+A2*X2+A3*X3+A4*X4+A5*X5+A6*X6+U运用OLS估计方法对上式中得参数进行估计，利用Eviews软件得回归分析结果如下：（表1.2）DependentVariable:YMethod:LeastSquaresDate:06/03/05Time:20:44Sample:19782002Includedobservations:25VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.C

7、5421.2153244.8561.6707100.112113X10.0509330.0302151.6857080.1091X2-0.2244280.113375-1.9795160.0633X321.183872.08494110.160420.0000X4-0.2165350.203877-1.0620840.3022X50.4884900.3118031.5666650.1346X60.3366200.1392082.4181020.0264R-squared0.999725Meandependen

8、tvar35976.74AdjustedR-squared0.999634S.D.dependentvar34444.88S.E.ofregression658.9930Akaikeinfocriterion16.05080Sumsquaredresid7816893.Schwarzcriterion16.39208Loglikelihood-193.6350F-statistic10925.17D