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1、ChinaCommercialVehicleMarketOverviewDiscussionPaper–Beijing,February7,20079/February/2007Strategy&CorporateDevelopmentHeavydutytruckandlighttruckoutperformedothersegmentsduringlast6yearsChinesetruckmarket,2000-2010E,[‘000units]Source:ChinaAutomobileYearbook2006,ChinaAutoAss
2、ociation,VGCanalysisMini1)Light1)Medium1)Heavyduty1)24%3%16%13%CAGR(’00-’06)CAGR(’06-’10E)21%1%10%4%1,0981,2111,5261,5081,7512,583819775CAGR=14.7%GTW1.8tGTW6tGTW14tHeavyDutyTruckMediumTruckLightTruckMiniTruck1)DefinitioninChina10.1%2Heavydutytruckwillseeareboundinthenextyea
3、rs,afterasuddenslumpcausedbygovernmentausteritymeasuresHeavydutytrucksegmentSource:ChinaAutomobileYearbook2006,ChinaAutoAssociationSalesofHDT(Heavydutytrucks)[‘000units]RemarksCAGR=3%CAGR=30%1999-2004:fastgrowingProactivefiscalandmonetarypoliciesstartedin1999OEMsgreatlyimpr
4、ovedthetechnologyandcapacity2005:suddenslumpGovernmentrigidmeasurestocooldowneconomyLogisticscompanies’over-investmentinfleetin20042006afterwards:reboundHeavyfixedassetinvestmentof11th“5plan”Government’s“anti-overloading”2trillionRMBnewinvestmenton85,000kmexpresswaybuilding
5、Polarization(heavyorlight)accelerates315-20％33％Specialty(Chassis)1)5％8％Flat-bedTruck10-15％33％Tipper15-20％26％TractorCAGR2003-20102010EstimatedMarketShareWithinHDTsegment,specialtyvehiclesandtractorsaremostattractive2010MarketShare2010MarketVolumeCAGRof2003-201030%0%10%40%Fla
6、t-bedTractor5%10%15%20%Tippers1）Mainlyincludecargo,concretemixer,bulkcementtank,fire-fighting,refusecollector,etc.SpecialtyVehicle4Pricewise,medium/uppermediumsegmentprovidesbetterentryopportunityMarketSharePriceRange[RMB‘000]ThedominantplatformSteyrseemsoutofdateformid-end
7、customersCompetitionisnotintensiveyet,asdomesticplayersjuststartedtoenterMediumendImportedhigh-endbrandscanhardlyenterthesesegmentduetocost/brandconcernsMajormakesHigh(MainlyCorporates)Medium(Corporates,smallbusinessesandindividuals)Low(Mainlysmallbusinessesandindividuals)>
8、500<2507-8%~50%20-30%Volvo,BenzManJianghuai,Hualing,BeifangBenzFAW,Dongfeng,CNHTC,
