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ID:11806798
大小:1.30 MB
页数:49页
时间:2018-07-14
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1、BCG’SVALUEMANAGEMENTFRAMEWORKANOVERVIEWFORMBASTUDENTSByRawleyThomasDirectorofResearchTheBostonConsultingGroup200SouthWackerDriveChicago,Illinois60606312-627-2618Thomas.Rawley@BCG.comWHATGETSMEASUREDGETSDONETraditionalValuationTechniquesVersusBCG’sValuationFrameworkTraditionalValuationTechni
2、quesForecastnominalcashflowsbyestimatingP&LlineitemsandchangestothebalancesheetEstimateterminalvaluewithaperpetuityoftheforecastedlastyear’snetcashflowDeterminecostofcapitalbyweightingequityCAPMcostwithdebtcostDiscountthecashflowsandterminalvaluetopresentvaluewiththeweightedaveragecostofcapi
3、talObservationsonMissingElementsNoperformancemeasuretodetermineifthebusinessisachievingreturnsaboveorbelowthecostofcapitalorifthetrendinthosereturnsisupordownNofadeinperformancetodeterminelikelycashflowsinacompetitiveenvironmentDiscountratesdeterminedbypastpricechanges,notfuturelikelycashflo
4、wsNoextensiveempiricaltestingBCG’sValuationFrameworkTranslateaccountingstatementstogrosscashflowsandgrosscashinvestmentsinconstantdollarstoproducecashoncashreturnsTranslatecashoncashreturnstoeconomicperformancemeasures(CFROIs)byadjustingforassetlifeandmixofdepreciatingversusnon-depreciatinga
5、ssetsDeterminesustainableassetgrowthratesFadeCFROIsandassetgrowthratestowardcorporateaveragesconsistentwithlifecycletheoryandempiricalevidencetoestimatefuturecashflows(replacesterminalvaluation)Estimatemarketderivedrealdiscountratebyequatingthepresentvalueofthecashflowsforalargeaggregatetoth
6、esumofthepricesofdebtandequityApplythemarketderiveddiscountratetothecashflowsderivedfromfadingeconomicperformancetodeterminemarketvaluation;subtractdebttodetermineequityvaluationTestmodelvaluesagainstactualstockpricesforthousandsoffirmsfor10-40yearsacrossmanycountries;refine,refine,refineMAN
7、YASSETSFOLLOWTHESAMEUSEFULOUTPUTPATTERNASACAR...ConstantDollarLevelAnnuityEconomicLifeLikelyActualOutputOutputDeclinewithStraightLineDepreciationISSUESWITHTRADITIONALRETURNMEASURES(*)Economicdepreciation=amountofannualsinking-fundpaymentearningCOC
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