全球宏观策略-数据观察

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1、若出现数据缺失，图表错位，可加微信：535600147，凭下载记录截图索取pdf版本若出现数据缺失，图表错位，可加微信：535600147，凭下载记录截图索取pdf版本Inthisregard,therecentdatashowingregionalexportsad-vancinginMarchandAprilwithpositiveearlyindicatorsforMayisencouraging.G3centralbanks:It’sabouttheguidanceG3centralbanksannouncednotablepolicyactionsatme

2、et-ingsthisweek—includingaratehikebytheFOMCandadecisiontoendQEthisyearbytheECB—buttheimportantnewscamefromforwardguidanceonratenormalization.·AcautioushawkishtiltfromtheFed.TheFOMC’scen-tralmessageisagrowinginclinationtoseepolicyturningrestrictive.Thisisreflectedinthe“dot”plot—whichpus

3、hedthecommittee’smedianforecastaboveneutralbe-foretheendofnextyear—andisreinforcedbytheremovalofstatementlanguagesuggestingthatthepolicystancewillremainaccommodativeforsometimetocome.Importantly,themotivationforthischangeisthemoreupbeateconomicoutlook.However,astheFedhasturnedmoreupbea

4、tongrowthandmoreconfidentoninflation,itspolicyrateguidancehasadjustedcautiously(Figure3).Thisisacon-sistentresultfromouranalysisthatparses“dot”plotchang-esfromdata(Fedunemploymentrateandinflationforecastchanges),structure(changesinviewsonr*andu*),andanunexplainedresidual.Partofitscauti

5、onlikelyreflectslin-geringconcernsaboutthefragilityoftheeconomyinthefaceofrisinginterestrates.However,thecentralbankisal-growth.However,itisnotclearthatthisguidanceiscon-sistentwithECBstaffforecaststhatpointtoastepupincoreinflationandarapidfallintheunemploymentrateahead.TheECBmayfollo

6、wtheFedindisplayinggreatertoleranceforaninflationovershootastheEuroareaexpan-sionmovesforward.However,itisdifficulttoseethisshifttakinghold.Morelikely,policyguidancewillneedtoad-justabruptlysometimenextyear,settingthestageforanECBthathikesmorequicklythanmarketscurrentlyprice.·BoJstoodp

7、atasinflationdisappointed.AlthoughtheBoJpointedtoadownwardrevisiontoitsinflationforecastattheupcomingJulymeeting,itshowsnosignsofdeliver-ingapolicyresponse.Itissignalingthatitspolicyleversareconstrainedandthatitiscomfortablethatgrowthwillremainstronganddeliveragradualinflationupturn.