中国可再生能源行业报告-新篇章：网格平价

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1、ChinaRenewableEnergySectorCONNECTIONSSERIESAnewchapterisunfolding:GridparityFigure1:China—investmentcosttrendssupportgridparityby2020(GW)(Rmb/W)8060406.5204.00751335832009201020112012201320142015201620172018E2019E2020EPostgrid-Annualinstallation-Wind(LHS)Annualinstallation-Solar(LHS)Investment

2、cost-Wind(RHS)Investmentcost-Solar(RHS)paritySource:NDRC,CreditSuisseestimates■2020likelyalandmarkyear.Givenrecentindustrychanges,wenowbelievethatrenewablegridparityinChinacouldhappensoonerthanexpected,turningthesectorfrompolicy-dependenttosubsidy-free.Askeychanges,webringforwardfullsolarparity

3、byoneyeartoearly2020,andwealsotaketheviewthatwindparitycouldhappenin2020.Withoutsubsidies,solarandwinddemandcouldriseto75GWand35GWayearpost-2020,respectively,creatingunprecedentedgrowthforkeyplayers.■Dynamicsbeforedawn.Beforetheparitieshappenin2020,curtailmentreductionshouldcontinuetoboostwind-f

4、armprofitabilityandcapacitygrowthisvisible,backedby2-3yearsofapprovedpipeline.AtaninvestmentcostofRmb6.5/Wand<5%curtailmentrate,windfarmswouldnolongerneedsubsidiestobeprofitable.Meanwhile,solarfarmscouldseenear-termdemanddownsidewithgovernmentintervention,andsolarmanufacturingcouldcontinuetosuff

5、erfrompricedeclines.Thisshouldquickensolarcostsdeclineto

6、rtherpricefallsandmargincontractionsformanufacturersin2H18E.Alonger-termconcernisifChinahasenoughpowerdemandgrowthtoabsorbrisingrenewables,whichwearelessworriedabout,giventheriseofmultiplenewdrivers.■Stockcalls.Weincludepost-paritydynamicsintoourTPs,likelynotcapturedbycurrentvaluations.Wearebull

7、ishonwindoperators(HNR,Longyuan,andCRP[upgradefromNeutraltoOUTPERFORMonhigherwindearnings])andequipmentmakerslikeGoldwind(windfarmearningstooffsetturbinepricingrisk).Wearecautiousonsolarinthenearterm(cuttingearningsandTPs)bu