the economic crisis in europe – causes, effects, policies, options

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1、TheeconomiccrisisinEurope–causes,effects,policies,alternativesPresentationtoPERCseminaronthecrisisintheBaltics,Vilnius,9June2009OverviewCausesCurrentsituationGreenshoots?EUpolicyresponseCritique–whatneedstobedoneAndrewWatt©etui(2009)2Economiccrisis-VilniusCauses–notjustafinancialcrisisShar

2、priseincommoditypricesSharpappreciationoftheeuroLaggedeffectofpastinterest-raterisesImbalancesand(housing)boomsinsomeEUcountriesThenshockfromUShitEurope:USconsumerretrenchmentFedratecutsledtomoreappreciationofeuroToxicassetsheldbyEUbanksEmergingmarketsandworldtradehitAndrewWatt©etui(2009)3

3、Economiccrisis-VilniusGrimprospectsforEU(worsethanUS)Note:followingchartsfromEuropeanCommissionSpringForecastAndrewWatt©etui(2009)4Economiccrisis-VilniusMassiveoutputdrop–butnounsustainableboomAndrewWatt©etui(2009)5Economiccrisis-VilniusSeverelaggedimpacton(un)employmentAndrewWatt©etui(200

4、9)6Economiccrisis-VilniusSeverelaggedimpactonfiscalpositionAndrewWatt©etui(2009)7Economiccrisis-VilniusBottomingout?–sentimentindicatorsAndrewWatt©etui(2009)8Economiccrisis-VilniusBottomingout?–sharepricesAndrewWatt©etui(2009)9Economiccrisis-VilniusBottomingout?-industrialproductionAndrewW

5、att©etui(2009)10Economiccrisis-VilniusDownsiderisksRenewedriseincommoditypricesUnexplodedbombsinthefinancialsector(especiallyinEurope!)CollapseoftheUS-dollarCurrencycrisesineasternEuropePrematureexitstrategiesAndrewWatt©etui(2009)11Economiccrisis-VilniusPolicyresponseinEurope–toolittletool

6、ateAndrewWatt©etui(2009)12Economiccrisis-VilniusCutininterestrateslimitedimpactonfirmsborrowingcostsAndrewWatt©etui(2009)13Economiccrisis-VilniusPolicyresponseinEurope–toolittletoolateSimpleaverageWeightedaverageTotalfiscalpackage09/101.701.79in20090.991.02in20100.610.59revenueside52%52%ex

7、penditureside48%48%AndrewWatt©etui(2009)14Economiccrisis-VilniusPolicyresponseinEurope–toolittletoolateATBEDKFIFRDEHUITLUNLNOPTESSEUKOverallsizeoffiscalpackage2.40.92.21.512.6400.214.62.41.5in200910.41.210.71.200.21.70.40.71.22.31.21.4in20101.40.410.50.31.500.