forecasting energy consumption using a newgm–armamodel based on hp filter the case of guangdong province of china

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1、EconomicModelling45(2015)127–135ContentslistsavailableatScienceDirectEconomicModellingjournalhomepage:www.elsevier.com/locate/ecmodForecastingenergyconsumptionusinganewGM–ARMAmodelbasedonHPfilter:ThecaseofGuangdongProvinceofChinaaa,b,⁎,YouzhuLiuacWeijunXu,RenGu,YongwuDaiaScho

2、olofBusinessAdministration,InstituteofGovernmentDecision-makingandPerformanceEvaluation,SouthChinaUniversityofTechnology,Guangzhou510640,ChinabSchoolofEconomicsandCommerce,SouthChinaUniversityofTechnology,Guangzhou510006,ChinacCollegeofEconomicsandManagement,FujianAgricultur

3、eandForestryUniversity,Fujian350002,ChinaarticleinfoabstractArticlehistory:Guangdong'senergyreductionrequirementsdevelopedbytheStateCouncilofChinaunderthe12thFive-yearAccepted7November2014Planreflectareality:therestrictionbroughtbyenergyconsumptiononeconomicdevelopmentinGuang

4、dongAvailableonline12December2014istougher.ToobtainadetailedunderstandingofthefutureamountofGuangdong'senergyconsumptioninthecomingyears,thispaperestablishesanewmodelwithimprovedGM–ARMAbasedonHPFiltertoforecastKeywords:thefinalenergyconsumption.Comparedwithtraditionalstatisti

5、calapproaches,thecasestudyofGuangdongin-FinalenergyconsumptiondicatesthattheimprovedGM–ARMAmodelhasexcellentaccuracyandhigherlevelofreliability.Moreover,GreymodelGM–ARMAbasedonthismodel,thispaperpredictstheenergyconsumptionunderdifferentfutureeconomicscenariosHPFilterandfore

6、caststhefuturechangesinthestructureofthefinalenergyconsumptioninGuangdongfrom2013toEnergystructure2016todiscussGuangdong'spossibilityofachievingthereductiongoal.Finally,thispaperfindsthattheissueofenergysavingandemissionreductionisveryseriousinthenextfewyears.©2014ElsevierB.V.

7、Allrightsreserved.1.IntroductionNationalEconomicandSocialDevelopment(2011–2015)havebeenregulatedbyChina'sStateCouncil,requiringGuangdongProvincetoGuangdongProvince,locatedinthesouthernpartofChinawithacutenergyuseperunitofgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)byabout18%.populationofmoreth

8、an100millionpeople,isoneofthestrongesteco-ThereisagrowingconcernwithGuangdo