资源描述：
《风险的n种面孔（n faces of risk）》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在教育资源-天天文库。
1、风险的n种面孔（Nfacesofrisk）Normally,therisksthatcanbecontrolledarenotasalarmingastheuncontrollablerisks,eventhoughtheformerismorelikelytooccur.ThetrafficaccidenthappenedinbetweenMilanandVeniceonthefreewayisextremelyhighrisk,butnottofeelfear,becausepeoplecantakecontrolofthesteeringwheel,youdecidetovent
2、uretodrivefast,takelifeajoke.Wetendtoassessriskswithemotions,experiences,numbers,orpersonalpreferences,andreasonisalwaysmarginalized,andtheresultisthatwedon'trecognizerisk.RiskrelativityInthenewspaperIreadeveryday,therewasapagetoletreadersknowmoreaboutscientificknowledge.Oneofthereportsintroduce
3、dthelatestresearchpapersintheworld'smostauthoritativejournals.Peoplewithhighercholesterollevelsare50%morelikelytosufferfromheartdiseasethanpeople,andpeoplewhothinkabouthighcholesterolmustbeveryupsetafterreadingit.Atthispointwemaythink:"whatexactlydoesthisnumberwanttoconvey?""Let'sfirstpresentthe
4、samedatainotherways.Accordingtoforecasts,ageof50peoplewithnormalcholesterollevels,100inevery4peopleinthenext10yearssufferingfrommyocardialinfarction;thesameagebutcholesterolishigh,thereare6peoplesufferfrommyocardialinfarction.Thecorrespondingis"50%"writteninthenewspaper,becausetheincreaseof2peop
5、leishalfof4people,thatis,50%.A4personincreaseof2representsarelativeriskincreaseof50%,butwecanalsorepresentthesamedatainadifferentway-focusingontheimprovementof"absoluterisk".Inthiscase,"absoluterisk"onlyincreasedby2%,thatis,thedifferencebetween6or4peoplein100people.Comparedwith"50%",thenumber"2%
6、"willweakenthepsychologicalshockcausedbythereportonthereaderswithhighcholesterol.Aslongasweunderstandthis,wewillcalmlythinkaboutwhatthenumbersaresaying,ratherthanworryingtoomuch.Foranotherexample,thisisoneofthetopicsweoftentalkaboutinourdailylife."Carbeltatanytime,canreducetheriskof15%."".Youmig
7、htthink,you'realwayswearingyourseatbelt,okay?.Butdoyoureallyknowtheriskofleavingacarinacarcrashfor70yearsinthecaseofwearingaseatbelt?Youdon'tknow.Thisstatementisnotclear,canreducetheriskof"absoluterisk"or"relativerisk"?".Sup
