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ID:15590954
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时间:2018-08-04
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1、section1WhatDefinesGameTheory(博弈论,哈佛大学)GOV2005:GameTheorySection1AlexisDiamondadiamond@fas.harvard.eduAgendaWhatisgametheory?Exercise:convergencetoequilibriumKeytermsanddefinitionsFormaltheory:whatLeohastosayaboutitHowdoyoudoit(usingformaltheory)Application:AllianceFormationFinalthoughtsWhatDefine
2、sGameTheory?MathematicallypreciseListofplayersCompletedescriptionofallowablemovesDescriptionofinformationSpecificationofhowactionscauseoutcomesSpecificationofplayers’preferencesFormalAnalysisofStrategicSettingsExercise:MovingtoEquilibriumPlayer2AGameinNormalFormAvgpayoffforplayingwithprobdistribut
3、ionp,givenothersplaystrategieswithprobdistributionqExpectedValue:ThreeorFourImportantConceptsDominantStrategyOnebeststrategynomatterwhatyouropponentdoesWeaklydominantversusstrongly(strictlydominant)strategiesMixedStrategyMovesarechosenrandomlyfromthesetofpurestrategiesEverysimultaneousmovegamehasa
4、NashequilibriuminmixedstrategiesNashequilibrium:WheneachplayerisplayingabestresponsetothestrategiesoftheothersBeliefs:ProbabilitydistributionoverstrategiesofotherplayersKeyTermsandDefinitionsNormalformandextensiveformNodes(initial,terminal)InformationsetsStrategy:completecontingentplanOneforeveryi
5、nformationsetEquilibrium:astabilityconceptWelfareParetooptimality:nofreelunchFormalTheory:What’sitgoodfor?Wehaveabsolutelycertainorscientificknowledgeonlyofthosesubjectsofwhichwearethecauses…Theconstructionmustbeconsciousconstruction;itisimpossibletoknowascientifictruthwithoutknowingatthesametimet
6、hatwehavemadeit.Theworldofourconstructsisthereforethedesiredislandthatisexemptfromthefluxofblindandaimlesscausation.“Weunderstandonlywhatwemake”--LeoStraussApplyingFormalTheoryGoal(researchquestion)Story(model)Formalization(abstraction)Analysis(manipulation)Solution(definitionofequilibrium)Transla
7、tion(externalandinternalvalidity)GeneralEquilibrium:interactionsamongmany(infinite)agents,whereanyoneagent’sactionshavenoeffectonotheragents.GameTheoryisjustoneofseveralformalmodelingapproachesExample:AllianceFor
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