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1、USAirlines:Q2WrapNewEstimates/Targets,butRatingsRemaintheSameNorthAmericaEquityResearch31July2018Earningsseasonaffordedfewfundamentalsurprises,inourview,thoughsomeoftheequitygyrationsstruckusasexaggerated.Butoverall,investorsheardmostlywhatwasexpected,principallythatdemand
2、trendsremainfirmandplannedcapacitywillbelower.Unexpectedbutwelcomed,atleastbyus,wasstepped-upmanagementemphasisonmarginexpansion,whichwebelieveremainsakeyinvestmentthemeaswelookinto2019–thoughitremainsprematuretoaggressivelypoundthetableonthispoint.Ourrevisedforecastsandpri
3、cetargetsaresomewhatofamixedbagwithnoresultingchangestoratings,andourmodelsareyoursfortheasking.·Earningsseasonaffordedsomeinterestingtidbits,butnoseismicshifts–CapacityandTRASMguideslargelysatiatedinvestors,inourview.ConfidenceinJetBluecostcontrolsufferedamodestblow,Alaska
4、andSouthwestmanagementssoundedresilient(partiallyobfuscatingtheirguide-downs),andAmericandidapoorjobdefendingitslonger-termpotentialaspartoftheBigThreeconstruct,inourview.Unlikeinpastearningsseasons,nosuccinctthemenordirectionofestimaterevisionemerged.Butwedidlikeonethingwe
5、heard…·Marginexpansionisincreasinglyapriorityformostmanagementteams–Weremainoftheviewthat2019islikelytowitnessmarginexpansion,forthefirsttimeinfouryears.Laborcostsareset,thefuelcurveappearsmanageable,capacitycontinuestotighten,andeconomictrendsremainencouragingbutwithallthe
6、usualcaveats.Frankly,thisisoneofthebestsetupswecanrecallinsometime,particularlywiththeBigThreetrading~7x2019EEPSandDiscounters10x(onlyALK@11xlookspriceytous).Inourview,cheapcyclicalspoisedforpotentialmarginexpansionandmeaningfulearningsgrowthmayprovejustthethesistofinallyat
7、tractmoregeneraliststothesector,helpingboostsaggingmultiples.·Butwedon’tthinkstocksregainmomentumuntilthefall–Simplyput,2019lookshighlyfavourabletous,butwethinkthere’sstilltoomuchuncertaintytoaggressivelypounddowngeneralists’doorsandtrytoattractincrementalbuyers.As2019draws
8、morecloselyintoview,confidenceislikelytoreturnandstocksmaypotentiallystartworkingi
