拉美-宏观策略-巴西：大选追 踪

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1、BRAZIL:ELECTIONTRACKERAUGUST2018EMERGINGMARKETSRESEARCH,LATAMMARCELOCARVALHO@MCarvalhoEconTIMEOFTVANRDADIOCoalitionshavebeenformedandMarinaBolsonarowillshareTV&Radiotime(REDE)(PSL)Ciro(PDT)0min18sec0min09secoAlckmin(PSDB)withPSD,PP,PR,PTB,0min37secDEM,PRB,SDan

2、dPPS5min32sec(44%)oPTcandidatewithPROSandPCdoBOtherAlckmin1min27sec2min29sec(20%)(PSDB)5min32secoBolsonarowithPRTB9sec(1.2%)MeirellesoMeirelles(MDB),Marina(REDE)andCiro(MDB)(PDT)alone1min57secMeirelles(MDB)1min57sec(16%)Marina(REDE)Checkouthow18sec(2.4%)

3、coalitionswillCiro(PDT)looklikePTcandidateSources:XPInvestimentos,BNPParibas37sec(5.0%)2min29secAugust6,2ELECTORALFUNDPERPARTY(BRLMILLION)MDB234PT212PSDB186PP131PSB119PR113PSD112DEM89PRB67PTB62PDT61MDBhasthelargestamountofelectoralfundSDD40PODE36comparedtoot

4、herparties.However,itwon’tlikelyPSC36PCdoB31beavailableforelectioncampaigning,meaningPPS29PV25HenriqueMeirelles,itscandidate,willhavetoPSOL21financehisowncampaigning;PROS21PHS18Avante12Rede11Patriota10MarinaSilva(REDE)andJairBolsonaro(PSL)don’tPSL9havemuchelec

5、toralfundavailableforcampaigning;PTC6PRP5DC4PMN4PRTB4Aparty’selectoralfundissharedbetweenseveralPSTU1PCB1candidates(deputies,senatorsandgovernors).ThePCO1amountdoesn’trepresentwhatisavailableforPPL1Novo1eachcandidate.PMB1Sources:Politicalanalysts,TSE,BNPPariba

6、sAugust6,3BREAKINGNEWS:POLLOFPOLLSVOTINGPROSPECTSOFMAINCANDIDATES(WITHOUTLULA)–1STROUND302520151050Sources:Datafolha,CNT/MDA,Ipespe(XPInvestments)August6,4BREAKINGNEW:PSOLLOFPOLLSVOTINGPROSPECTSOFMAINCANDIDATES(WITHLULA)–1STROUND(%)4035302520151050Sources:Dataf

7、olha,CNT/MDA,Ipespe(XPInvestments)August6,5BREAKINGNEW:PSSDBINTHEPASTELECTIONSVOTINGINTENTIONSFORPSDBCANDIDATESBEFOREPRESIDENTIALELECTIONS(%)40Campaigningnbeginsoit35netn30igni25t)o%V(2015200210898888820068101076201055201402018-200-180-160-140-120-100-80-60-40-

8、20Daysbefore1stroundSources:PollingData,Datafolha,IBOPE,Ipespe(XPInvestiments),BNPParibasAugust6,62018ELECTIONCALENDAR31-Beginningof28–ElectionselectioncampaignonTVandRadio*