新兴市场-股票策略-美股修正对新兴市场有好处么？

《新兴市场-股票策略-美股修正对新兴市场有好处么？》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、October15,201810:39AMGMT35GlobalEMStrategist

2、GlobalIsaUSEquityCorrectionGoodforEM?WeakerUSequitieshavenothurtEMFXthankstoaweakerDXYandcleanerpositioning.EMcreditismorevulnerableduetoheavierpositioning,upcomingissuanceandcorrelationwithUScredit.Wedowngradeourstance

3、tobearishbutkeeplocalmarketsatneutral.MORGANSTANLEY&CO.INTERNATIONALPLC+JamesKLordJames.Lord@morganstanley.comMinDai+44207677-3254STRATEGISTMin.Dai@morganstanley.com+44207425-4381JaiparanSKhuranaSTRATEGISTJaiparan.Khurana@morganstanley.com+44207677-6671MORGANSTAN

4、LEY&CO.LLCSimonWaeverSTRATEGISTSimon.Waever@morganstanley.com+1212296-8101AndresJaimeSTRATEGISTAndres.Jaime@morganstanley.com+1212296-5570IoanaZamfirSTRATEGISTIoana.Zamfir@morganstanley.com+1212761-4012GilbertoAHernandez-GomezSTRATEGIST3535Localversuscredit:TheUSe

5、quitybullmarkethasnotexactlybeenaboonforEMfixedincome.Socoulditsendprovidesomerelief?Highervolatilitysuggeststhatinvestorsshouldremaincautiousbutwethinkthatlocalmarketsandcreditcanreactabitdifferently.ThekeylieswithUSD.Thisyear,theoutperformanceofUSassetshelpedtoa

6、ttractcapitalinflowsandstrengthenedUSD.AweakerUSequitymarketcouldrebalanceflowsandputUSDunderdownwardpressure,providingsupporttoEM.Combinedwithlightpositioning,weseeaneutralstanceonEMlocalmarketsasstillappropriate.EquityweaknessshouldseeAXJunderperform.Weseecredit

7、abitdifferently.Technicalsarenotassupportiveand,althoughastableUSDwillhelp,thecorrelationwithUScreditmarkets(whereweseewiderspreads)isstrong.Welowerourstanceoncredittobearish.STRATEGISTGilberto.Hernandez-Gomez@morganstanley.comMORGANSTANLEYASIALIMITED+ChunHimCheu

8、ngSTRATEGISTChun.Him.Cheung@morganstanley.comBelleChangSTRATEGISTBelle.Chang@morganstanley.comCouldEMcreditandlocaldiverge?+1212296-8940+8522239-1261+8523963-066835Ifgeopoliticalrisksleadtohigheroilprices,oil-importingsovereigncreditscouldcomeunderpressureandassu

9、chwedislikeIndonesia,SriLanka,PakistanandLebanon.Withinoilexporters,wearelookingtoswitchoutofQatarintoMexicointhebelly,andthinkthatBahraincouldgiveupsom