美股-投资策略-美国mlps：带我回来，我已改变

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1、10October2018Americas/UnitedStatesEquityResearchMasterLimitedPartnershipsTakeMeBack—I’veChangedResearchAnalystsSpiroDounis2123253463spiro.dounis@credit-suisse.comJohnMackay2123256242john.mackay@credit-suisse.comManavGupta2123256617manav.gupta@credit-suisse.comDouglasIrwin2123256850do

2、uglas.irwin.2@credit-suisse.comCharlesBryant2123254938charles.bryant@credit-suisse.comINITIATIONInitiatingCoverageof39MidstreamStocksWearelaunchingcoverageof39midstreamnameswithaconstructiveviewonthesector.Pleaseseeourslidedeckaswellforamorecomprehensiveoverviewofthemidstreammarketan

3、dcompanyoverviews:link■Ourconstructiveviewisbasedonthefollowingfactors:(1)domesticoilandgasproductionactivityisexpectedtoremainstrongand(2)midstreamstocksappearundervaluedonseveralmetrics.■Strategically,wepreferstockswithleveragetoexportmarkets.Weexpectthevastmajorityofmarginalproduc

4、tionforcrude,refinedproducts,NGLs,andLNGtoclearthroughtheexports.Giventhesmallbutgrowingfootprintoftheexportmarket,weseeexportsasaleveredwaytogainexposuretostrongUSoilandgasproductiongrowth.■Midstreamstocksarestillundergoinganevolutiontobecomemoreinvestorfriendlybysimplifyingtheirstr

5、uctures,removingIDRs,andimprovingcorporategovernance.Whileprogresshasbeenmade,westillseeconsiderableroomforimprovement,whichwebelieveservesasapositivecatalystforvaluation.Weexpectthisevolutiontoresultinawiderinvestorbaseandhavedevelopedaproprietaryscorecardtorankmidstreamcompaniesbas

6、edonseveninvestor-friendlycriteria.■Inourview,thesectorisenteringaperiodofmid-cyclereturns;however,webelievevaluationsremaindislocatedtothedownsiderelativetohistory.Earningsmultiplesarebelowaverage,andthehistoricalpremiumtotheenergysectoristwoturnsbelowaverage.Bothmetricssuggestmidst

7、reamstockshaveroomtoseemultiplesexpand.■TopPicks:DCP,LNG,KMI,andMPLX■LeastPreferred:BPMPandENLK■Valuation:WeutilizeEV/EBITDAtovaluemidstreamstocks,aswebelievedistributionoryieldmetricshavebecomelessrelevantandEV/EBITDAisamorecommonlyusedmetricacrossseveralindustriesandmayhavebroadera

8、ppealtoawide