Q系列：较低的长期废钢价格如何影 响产业价值链？.docx

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1、ABGlobalResearch1November2018EquitiesEuropeincludingUKSteelCarstenRiekAnalystcarsten.riek@ubs.com+44-20-75681823AndreasBokkenheuserAnalystandreas.bokkenheuser@ubs.com+1-212-7139516Yong-SukSon,CFAAnalystyongsuk.son@ubs.com+82-2-37028804CleveRueckertAnalystcleve.rueckert@ubs.com+1-212-7134913

2、JamesBrennan-ChongAnalystjames.brennan-chong@ubs.com+61-2-93243623AmitRustagiAnalystamit.rustagi@ubs.com+91-22-61556052LachlanShawCommoditiesStrategistlachlan.shaw@ubs.com+61-3-92426387GlynLawcockAnalystglyn.lawcock@ubs.com+61-2-93243675EricLinAnalysteric-p.lin@ubs.com+852-37123640StevenWin

3、okerAnalyststeven.winoker@ubs.com+1-212-7132716GuillermoPeigneuxLojoAnalystguillermo.peigneux-lojo@ubs.com+44-20-75689016Q-SeriesHowwillalowerlong-termscrappriceimpacttheindustrialvalue-chain?SteelscraptobecomeamajorindustrydisrupteroverthenextdecadeChina’smodernisationeffortsandthepushtowa

4、rdshigherenvironmentalstandardswilllikelydrivetherapidemergenceofChina’ssteelscrapsupply.Itwillprovetobeverydisruptive,inourview–notjusttothesteelsectorbutalsotothemining,transport,energyandESGsector.By2030,weforecastthattheglobalscrapsupplywillreachc800mt/y–up37%vs2017withChinabeingthemain

5、driver.WeestimateChina’sscrapsupplytotripleoverthesameperiod–aCAGRof9%.Andcontrarytopopularbelief,theimpactmaybefeltmuchsoonerthan2030.Theriskofamajorsteelpricecorrectionisemerginginthelong-term.Webelievesteelscrappriceschangeswillbethemaincostfactorofthefuturesteelprices,replacingironorean

6、dcokingcoal.Whatisuniqueaboutthiswork?Threethings,wewouldhighlight:1)Ourfindingsarebasedonanin-depth-analysisoftheglobalsteelscrapmarket,suchastheanalogywithscrapdevelopmentinnowmaturemarketsandourproprietysteelscrapsupply-demandmodel.2)Ourcross-sectorimpactanalysis,whichhighlightstheimpact

7、ofrisingsteelscrapsupplyonsectors,suchasthemining,thetransport,theenergy,thecapitalgoodsandESGsectors,suchaslowerbulkshippingvolumesinthetransportsector.(3)Wehavedevelopedaninteractivemodel(link)thatanalysesthescrapsupplycomingtothemarketby2030byvaryingt