我国外汇储备及其影响因素的分析

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1、我国外汇储备及其影响因素的分析年份外汇储备Y当年进口额X进出口差额I实际利用外资ethod:LeastSquaresDate:06/03/05Time:12:53Sample:19892004Includedobservations:16VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.C-96.42745188.2248-0.5122990.6223X0.7634760.1056647.2255080.0001I1.2905770.4383342.9442750.0186T0.8859530.3556492.4910920.0375eandepen

2、dentvar1516.385AdjustedR-squared0.996588S.D.dependentvar1645.826S.E.ofregression96.13192Akaikeinfocriterion12.27617Sumsquaredresid73930.77Sche:21:16Sample:19892004Includedobservations:16VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.C-631.9788102.4316-6.1697630.0000X1.1716920.04503126.019630.0000R-s

3、quared0.979740Meandependentvar1516.385AdjustedR-squared0.978293S.D.dependentvar1645.826S.E.ofregression242.4845Akaikeinfocriterion13.93622Sumsquaredresid823182.1Sche:22:35Sample:19892004Includedobservations:16VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.C-597.917664.47387-9.2737970.0000X0.9606440.

4、05243318.321300.0000T1.7405980.3647264.7723500.0004R-squared0.992638Meandependentvar1516.385AdjustedR-squared0.991505S.D.dependentvar1645.826S.E.ofregression151.6897Akaikeinfocriterion13.04891Sumsquaredresidregression25400.58Akaikeinfocriterion22.89131Sumsquaredresid6.45E+08Sche:16:48Sample(adjus

5、ted):19982004Includedobservations:7afteradjustingendpointsVariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.C-23408.6477933.21-0.3003680.7922E2(-1)0.9069170.6924781.3096700.3205E2(-2)-0.2796221.127537-0.2479930.8273E2(-3)0.8932310.6002681.4880550.2751E2(-4)0.0595431.1792400.0504930.9643R-squared0.64968

6、2Meandependentvar20858.81AdjustedR-squared-0.050954S.D.dependentvar20698.15S.E.ofregression21218.93Akaikeinfocriterion22.93898Sumsquaredresid9.00E+08Schwarzcriterion22.90035Loglikelihood-75.28644F-statistic0.927274Durbin-Watsonstat1.442716Prob(F-statistic)0.577914计算(n-p)r2=(7-4)*0.649682=1.949046

7、<0.05(4)=9.48773,故模型随机误差项不存在异方差。三．模型分析，析.48773,949046三三三、从上面的模型中可以得知对我国外汇储备规模增长的决定因素主要是当年进口额和国际收支经常项目下差额。另外，从表１中也可以看出，进出口贸易差额Ｉ、年平均汇率Ａ、外债余额Ｖ、资本项目差额Ｒ与外汇储备的相关系数分别为1.290577、0.610045、1.448563、0.654661。显然他们与外汇储备有很高的相关性，从