美国股市2019年展望：均值回归

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1、FOCUSU.S.EquityStrategy2019Outlook:ReversiontotheMeanWeremaincautiouslybullishwitha2019year-endpricetargetof3000(~+9.5%)fortheS&P500basedonCY2019EPSof$176(+7%y/y)andaP/Emultipleof17.0xMACROSTRATEGYU.S.EquityStrategyManeeshS.Deshpande+12125262953EquityResearc

2、h19November2018(current17.3x).WethinkreturnswillbeprimarilydrivenbyearningsandtheP/Emultipleisunlikelytobounceafterre-ratingdownthisyearasboththe“FedPut”andthe“TrumpCall”aresubstantiallyweaker.Weexpectmoderate2019EPSgrowthof7%afteraremarkable2018run(~25%y/y)as

3、severalone-offdriversfadeandmargincompressionisakeyconcern.Arecessionduring2019isnotourbasecasebutweareedgingclosertotheedge.WeremainOverweightTech&Healthcare,upgradeMaterialstoOverweight,butreduceFinancialstoMarketWeightandIndustrialstoUnderweight.WeinitiateC

4、ommunicationServicesatMarketWeightandmaintainourUnderweightforConsumerDiscretionaryandUtilities,andMarketWeightforEnergyandConsumerStaples.Oursectorpositioningisbasedonamulti-prongedapproach:1)OurquantitativeprojectionsforsectorearningsgrowthandP/Eratios;2)Rel

5、ativesectorperformanceasweapproacharecession;3)Effectofindividualsector-specificcycles;4)Impactofdisruptiveinnovation,whichweseeasbeginningtomoderate,and5)U.S.andforeigngovernmentpolicies.EconomicandEPSgrowthrevertingtotrendgrowthasthe2018bumpfades.Strong2018e

6、conomic/earningsgrowthwasdrivenbyfiscalstimulus,areboundfrom2016mini-industrialrecessionandfrontloadingoftradebeforetariffskickin.Astheseone-offdriversfade,weexpectgrowthtomoderatebutonlytopostcredit-criseslevels.Macroindicatorsarenotpredictingarecessionduring

7、2019buttheselloffincyclicalequitiesreflectsgrowthconcerns.Margincompressiondrivenbytariffsandwageinflationisakeyconcern.WeestimatethedirectimpactoninterestexpenseevenifFedhikesby100bpisonly0.5%.Capexspendinghasnotacceleratedandcompaniesareusingrepatriatedcasht

8、opaydowndebtandreturncashtoshareholdersviabuybacks.P/Emultiplesmuchclosertofairvaluebutunlikelytobounceback:P/Emultiples(17.3x)arenowmuchclosertoourmacro-factorbasedfairvaluemodel(